Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:34:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CC 0xccc6…db2b other 71 markets active 1h ago coverage 607d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$81 (+0%) realized +$81 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate20%14W / 56L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$289per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 68% −$14
other 16% +$33
politics 12% −$6
sports 2% +$63
crypto 1% +$1
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
world 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 19 +3.6% -6.3% 11% 5% -8.6%
≤90d 58 +6.1% -4.0% 21% 16% -7.9%
all 70 +4.9% -5.1% 20% 13% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.1% 13% -9.2%
10% -14.2% 13% -17.9%
15% -22.5% 11% -25.8%
20% -30.1% 10% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$2 · ×7.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.92 per $1 lost it wins $1.92
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

607d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized+$81
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses14 / 56
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)70 / 71
History coverage607d
Avg bet$289
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $65 $65 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $27 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $33 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $37 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $21 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $32 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $23 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $27 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $29 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $29 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 02 $39 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $67 $0 +1%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 01 $39 $0 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of May 31 $23 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $32 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $30 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 23 $32 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 18 $329 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $177 $0 -0%
San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 18 $17 +$12 +70%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $165 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 08 $153 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $158 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 06 $323 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $161 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 30 $154 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $156 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 26 $155 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $157 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $151 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $162 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 25 $160 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 24 $323 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $152 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $154 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $162 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $168 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $167 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $160 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $167 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $158 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $169 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 14 $156 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $160 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Apr 12 $25 +$2 +6%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 10 $7 +$4 +60%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 10 $8 +$13 +172%
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings Apr 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Hornets vs. Celtics Apr 08 $18 +$8 +46%
76ers vs. Spurs Apr 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $27 47m
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $27 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $65 3d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $33 4d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $33 4d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $37 5d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $37 5d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $21 6d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $21 6d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $32 6d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $32 7d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $23 7d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 7d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 10d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 10d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $29 11d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $29 12d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $29 12d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $29 12d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $39 14d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $39 14d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $39 15d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $39 15d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $23 16d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $23 16d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $32 16d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $32 16d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $30 22d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $30 23d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL No 100¢ $32 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.98 · official $64.98 (match) · 293 history records