Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:08:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xccc6…2c17 world 65 markets active 1h ago coverage 488d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$23 (-1%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate42%27W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% −$13
sports 22% −$12
politics 18% −$1
other 17% +$1
finance 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.3% -9.8% 14% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 25 -7.6% -16.4% 36% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 63 +10.7% +0.1% 43% 2% -9.5%
all 64 +8.9% -1.4% 42% 2% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.4% 2% -9.9%
10% -10.9% 2% -18.5%
15% -19.5% 2% -26.4%
20% -27.4% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

488d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses27 / 37
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)64 / 65
History coverage488d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 53¢ 49¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $33 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 20 $30 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $34 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $30 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $30 $0 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $26 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $96 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $60 +$1 +2%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $94 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $18 +$1 +7%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $106 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $61 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $64 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $18 $0 -3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $18 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $186 −$15 -8%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $2 −$1 -39%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 30 $30 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 29 $16 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 26 $43 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $43 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 24 $31 +$1 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $29 +$1 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 23 $41 −$1 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $40 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 19 $40 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 18 $4 $0 -10%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 17 $41 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $7 $0 +1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $94 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $51 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $85 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $45 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $15 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $276 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $288 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $41 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $3 $0 -5%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $45 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $48 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? Apr 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $41 $0 +0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 13 $6 $0 +3%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $44 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $97 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $44 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $33 30m
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $33 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $30 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $6 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $24 9h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $34 34h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $34 36h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $30 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $30 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $29 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $30 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 31¢ $8 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 31¢ $18 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 31¢ $26 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $26 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $31 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $34 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $14 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $2 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $15 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $31 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $24 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $7 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $25 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $6 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $30 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $29 8d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $30 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.87 · official $0.00 (match) · 302 history records