Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T01:56:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
CC 0xccca…4c02 other 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 336d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$1,983 (-38%) realized −$1,982 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -53% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -57% what you keep after slip
Net edge-57%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate16%7W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$488now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$198
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% −$886
other 32% −$748
sports 11% −$330
politics 2% −$29
culture 1% +$11
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-57.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 44 -52.6% -57.1% 16% 14% -43.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -57.1% 14% -43.3%
10% -61.2% 14% -48.7%
15% -64.9% 14% -53.7%
20% -68.4% 11% -58.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -53% · $-wt -54% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -67% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$64 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

336d coverage
Net worth$488
Realized−$1,982
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses7 / 37
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)44 / 47
History coverage336d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $298 $295 −$3 (-1%)
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Ecuador 82¢ 82¢ $192 $193 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $94 −$93 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $106 −$105 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Feb 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Feb 15 $8 +$11 +135%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Feb 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FaZe (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Sta Feb 15 $10 +$4 +43%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage Feb 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner Feb 15 $5 +$10 +176%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 31 $812 −$519 -64%
Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? Jan 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Trump nominate David Malpass as the next Fed chair? Jan 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 26, 2026 (ET)? Jan 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 25, 2026 (ET)? Jan 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Iran strike on Qatar by January 31, 2026? Jan 25 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 18, 2026 (ET)? Jan 18 $43 −$9 -22%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs Heroic (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifier Jan 17 $180 −$180 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? Jan 15 $239 −$146 -61%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Jan 13 $702 +$37 +5%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 11 $798 −$97 -12%
Maduro out by January 31, 2026? Jan 03 $250 −$250 -100%
US forces in Venezuela by January 31, 2026? Jan 03 $58 −$58 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 15, 2026? Jan 03 $69 +$239 +349%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Dec 20 $150 −$81 -54%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Nov 24 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro in November? Nov 24 $84 −$29 -35%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? Nov 24 $158 −$95 -60%
Ukraine agrees to US-approved peace plan by Thursday? Nov 24 $93 −$44 -47%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Las Vegas Grand Prix? Nov 23 $65 +$55 +86%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. win the 2025 F1 Las Vegas Grand Prix? Nov 23 $11 −$11 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 21? Nov 21 $18 −$7 -39%
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix po Oct 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix pole? Oct 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix pole? Oct 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will George Russell win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix pole? Oct 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix pole? Oct 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 10 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 15? Oct 10 $50 −$30 -61%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by August 31? Aug 20 $225 −$184 -82%
F1 Hungarian GP: Alonso vs. Stroll Aug 03 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix? Aug 03 $50 −$50 -100%
F1 Hungarian GP: Albon vs. Sainz Jul 28 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Belgian Grand Prix? Jul 28 $25 +$46 +182%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Belgian Grand Prix? Jul 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Belgian Grand Prix? Jul 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY 16¢ $9 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $107 1h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 82¢ $193 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $194 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $94 15d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $106 15d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 36¢ $19 133d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs paiN - Map 1 Winner SELL paiN 100¢ $19 133d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 61¢ $26 133d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FaZe (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Sta SELL Team Falcons 92¢ $14 133d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FaZe (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Sta BUY Team Falcons 64¢ $10 133d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage BUY G2 37¢ $10 133d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs paiN - Map 1 Winner BUY paiN 42¢ $8 133d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner SELL FaZe 86¢ $15 133d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner BUY FaZe 31¢ $5 133d
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $57 148d
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $112 149d
Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 150d
Will Trump nominate David Malpass as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 150d
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $160 150d
Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 154d
Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 154d
Will the US next strike Iran on January 26, 2026 (ET)? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 154d
Will the US next strike Iran on January 25, 2026 (ET)? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 154d
Will the US next strike Iran on January 26, 2026 (ET)? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 154d
Will the US next strike Iran on January 25, 2026 (ET)? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 154d
Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 154d
Iran strike on Qatar by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 154d
Iran strike on Qatar by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 157d
Iran strike on Qatar by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 157d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $488.23 · official $496.68 · 92 history records