Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:51:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xcccb…8590 sports 81 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$469 (-14%) realized −$363 · open −$106
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%31W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day41.3pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$615now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days−$293
14 days−$284
30 days−$284
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$339
other 27% −$38
world 3% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-25.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 -19.9% -27.5% 40% 37% -19.8%
≤30d 75 -17.8% -25.6% 41% 39% -19.4%
≤90d 75 -17.8% -25.6% 41% 39% -19.4%
all 75 -17.8% -25.6% 41% 39% -19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.6% 39% -19.4%
10% ← realistic here -32.7% 35% -27.1%
15% -39.2% 25% -34.2%
20% -45.2% 16% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$26 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$615
Realized−$363
Unrealized−$106
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses31 / 44
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions6
Markets (closed)75 / 81
History coverage8d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day41.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals Arizona Diamondbacks 64¢ 56¢ $383 $336 −$47 (-12%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? No 81¢ 88¢ $87 $95 +$8 (+9%)
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? No 46¢ 24¢ $126 $65 −$62 (-49%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? No 45¢ 88¢ $32 $62 +$30 (+94%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands Pakistan 79¢ 76¢ $17 $17 −$1 (-3%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 38¢ 12¢ $45 $15 −$30 (-67%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Yes 23¢ 12¢ $25 $13 −$13 (-50%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Ireland West Indies 79¢ 79¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals 50¢ 44¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres Jun 27 $91 +$104 +114%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $45 +$7 +16%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland Jun 26 $47 −$2 -5%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $22 −$3 -12%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $44 −$20 -46%
Valorant: Riddle vs Fennel (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Jun 26 $6 $0 +3%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Seattle Orcas Jun 26 $2 +$2 +105%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $25 +$29 +116%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $40 −$13 -33%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $21 +$26 +129%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $246 −$242 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $61 +$21 +34%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $44 +$192 +437%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $14 +$2 +13%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $54 −$53 -99%
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stag Jun 25 $35 −$5 -13%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 25 $1 $0 +24%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Bangladesh Jun 25 $5 $0 +3%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $11 −$10 -98%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Netherlands Jun 25 $4 −$4 -97%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 25 $13 −$12 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 25 $5 +$2 +34%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $73 +$68 +93%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $2 $0 -22%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $11 +$3 +32%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 25 $5 +$2 +36%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $35 −$35 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$3 +32%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs West Indies Jun 24 $6 +$1 +20%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $21 +$8 +37%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Mandatory (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group A Jun 24 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 24 $30 −$7 -24%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 24 $34 +$19 +57%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 24 $332 −$326 -98%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $2 +$1 +49%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$1 -14%
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C Jun 23 $2 +$5 +244%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $30 +$57 +192%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gro Jun 23 $1 $0 +38%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Pakistan Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY No 46¢ $128 25m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands BUY Pakistan 78¢ $8 31m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 88¢ $1 58m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 71¢ $23 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 86¢ $64 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 23¢ $26 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 45¢ $33 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 38¢ $21 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 38¢ $22 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 2h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 71¢ $6 2h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 58¢ $1 2h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 88¢ $5 2h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 87¢ $18 2h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 86¢ $20 2h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 79¢ $1 2h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 3h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland BUY Sri Lanka 75¢ $5 8h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY No 96¢ $23 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 12¢ $10 9h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland BUY Scotland 45¢ $1 10h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland BUY Scotland 45¢ $5 10h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland BUY Scotland 43¢ $5 10h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Ireland BUY West Indies 79¢ $8 11h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands BUY Pakistan 80¢ $10 11h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland BUY Scotland 32¢ $4 12h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 13h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 14h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $2 14h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $19 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $614.88 · official $614.88 (match) · 394 history records