Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:17:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xcccc…05b2 other 88 markets active 0h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,612 (+5%) realized +$2,346 · open +$1,266
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate54%29W / 25L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$771per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$26,983now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,137
7 days+$1,121
14 days+$969
30 days+$2,282
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% +$2,263
politics 18% +$590
world 9% −$16
sports 5% +$48
tech 2% +$162
crypto 1% +$299
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -2.5% -11.8% 67% 42% -3.4%
≤30d 34 +0.9% -8.7% 68% 41% -4.2%
≤90d 38 -2.3% -11.6% 61% 37% -5.0%
all 54 -1.7% -11.1% 54% 26% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 26% -5.0%
10% -19.6% 13% -14.1%
15% -27.4% 2% -22.4%
20% -34.5% 2% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$1,496) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$153 vs −$112 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.88 per $1 lost it wins $1.88
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$26,983
Realized+$2,346
Unrealized+$1,266
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses29 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions34
Markets (closed)54 / 88
History coverage141d
Avg bet$771
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 34 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? No 90¢ 90¢ $4,480 $4,495 +$15 (+0%)
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 95¢ 90¢ $4,745 $4,490 −$255 (-5%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 90¢ $3,544 $3,586 +$42 (+1%)
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 58¢ $1,000 $2,340 +$1,340 (+134%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 100¢ $1,500 $1,922 +$422 (+28%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 76¢ 99¢ $1,007 $1,312 +$305 (+30%)
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30? Yes 90¢ 99¢ $1,063 $1,168 +$106 (+10%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 28¢ $2,560 $1,140 −$1,420 (-55%)
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 34¢ 34¢ $863 $884 +$21 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 22¢ $483 $650 +$166 (+34%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 82¢ 99¢ $499 $603 +$104 (+21%)
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 88¢ 97¢ $441 $487 +$47 (+11%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 15¢ $267 $446 +$178 (+67%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $483 $410 −$74 (-15%)
Will Victor Marx win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election? Yes 89¢ 92¢ $357 $367 +$10 (+3%)
Will South Korea reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 91¢ $311 $322 +$11 (+3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $327 $308 −$20 (-6%)
Will Ecuador be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 12¢ 59¢ $60 $295 +$235 (+392%)
Will France be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $250 $245 −$5 (-2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $297 $230 −$68 (-23%)
Will France win the World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $200 $195 −$5 (-2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $249 $170 −$80 (-32%)
Will Ecuador be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Yes 5¢ 29¢ $25 $145 +$120 (+480%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $159 $136 −$22 (-14%)
Will France be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 10¢ 14¢ $100 $135 +$35 (+35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $945 +$298 +32%
Will Ecuador be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 25 $371 −$370 -100%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $1,792 +$1,208 +67%
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Jun 24 $1,500 −$107 -7%
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? Jun 24 $1,514 +$473 +31%
Will Uzbekistan win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $1,956 +$44 +2%
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $1,500 $0 +0%
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $452 +$48 +11%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $887 +$222 +25%
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $2,912 +$88 +3%
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $1,883 +$117 +6%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $905 −$900 -99%
Will Qatar win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $2,931 +$69 +2%
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $3,359 +$214 +6%
Will Cyndi Munson win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Democratic primary el Jun 17 $11 +$1 +13%
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio Jun 16 $1,490 −$306 -20%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1,511 −$92 -6%
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $506 −$34 -7%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $361 +$102 +28%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $1,509 −$151 -10%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 14 $507 +$45 +9%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June? Jun 12 $1,500 +$205 +14%
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Jun 11 $500 +$60 +12%
Will Jermaine Johnson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Democratic Jun 10 $503 +$110 +22%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $1,496 −$114 -8%
Will Robert Charles win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary ele Jun 08 $497 +$35 +7%
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? Jun 08 $247 +$2 +1%
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 07 $2,506 +$791 +32%
Will Grace Meng be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06? Jun 06 $500 −$6 -1%
Will DISY win the most seats at the Cyprus House of Representatives el Jun 04 $199 +$60 +30%
Will Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial Jun 04 $301 +$14 +4%
Will Woo Sang-ho win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election? Jun 04 $603 +$80 +13%
Will Josh Turek be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Iowa? Jun 04 $712 +$146 +20%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 03 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary May 20 $1,000 −$116 -12%
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? May 20 $994 −$75 -8%
Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? Apr 21 $1,000 $0 +0%
Will Italy qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? Mar 21 $10 $0 +3%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Mar 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 04 $10 $0 +3%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Feb 25 $10 $0 -2%
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? Feb 24 $10 $0 -2%
Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025? Feb 24 $10 $0 +2%
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? Feb 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Feb 19 $10 $0 -2%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? Feb 19 $10 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Feb 18 $10 $0 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Feb 14 $10 $0 -2%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Feb 11 $10 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Korea reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $226 6m
Will South Korea reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $85 11m
Will France be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 48m
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 35¢ $2 57m
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 35¢ $2 1h
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 35¢ $356 1h
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 31¢ $105 1h
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 31¢ $6 1h
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 31¢ $31 1h
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 31¢ $3 1h
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 95¢ $22 1h
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 34¢ $347 1h
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 95¢ $4,028 1h
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 31¢ $33 1h
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 95¢ $142 1h
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 95¢ $186 1h
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 95¢ $142 1h
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 95¢ $7 1h
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 95¢ $219 1h
Will France be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 3h
Will France be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 8h
Will France be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 8h
Will France be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 8h
Will France be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 8h
Will France be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 8h
Will France be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 8h
Will France be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 8h
Will France be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 8h
Will Ecuador be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $16 26h
Will Ecuador be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $4 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26,983.28 · official $26,994.49 (match) · 762 history records