Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:21:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CC 0xcccc…38cd crypto 221 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (195 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$297 (+4%) realized +$297 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate65%142W / 78L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day195.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$89
7 days+$75
14 days+$82
30 days+$82
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$76
other 0% +$4
sports 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (195 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 212 -7.1% -16.0% 64% 27% -8.7%
≤30d 220 -5.6% -14.6% 65% 29% -8.6%
≤90d 220 -5.6% -14.6% 65% 29% -8.6%
all 220 -5.6% -14.6% 65% 29% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover195.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.6% 29% -8.6%
10% ← realistic here -22.8% 13% -17.3%
15% -30.2% 6% -25.3%
20% -37.1% 3% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$11 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$297
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses142 / 78
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)220 / 221
History coverage11d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day195.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 220 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Up 68¢ 60¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 28 $18 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 28 $30 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 28 $20 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 27 $8 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 27 $7 −$6 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 27 $18 −$11 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 27 $24 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 27 $29 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 27 $42 −$9 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 27 $27 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 27 $53 −$6 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 27 $51 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 27 $47 −$45 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 27 $107 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 27 $60 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 27 $330 +$47 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 27 $157 +$173 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$21 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 27 $144 +$21 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 27 $76 +$17 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 27 $31 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 27 $60 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 27 $35 −$7 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 27 $46 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 27 $4 −$2 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 27 $77 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 27 $59 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 27 $33 −$29 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 27 $124 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 27 $128 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 27 $54 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 27 $43 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 27 $69 −$8 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 27 $84 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 27 $132 −$120 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 27 $99 +$84 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 27 $103 +$68 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 27 $6 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 27 $34 −$14 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 27 $146 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 27 $52 −$9 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 27 $89 −$45 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 27 $66 +$7 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 27 $42 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 27 $135 +$19 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 27 $45 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 27 $54 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 27 $21 −$1 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Down 23¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $3 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 20m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.75 · official $1.75 (match) · 2449 history records