Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:56:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xccd3…f5ee crypto 234 markets active 2h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,236 (+6%) realized +$1,236 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate55%128W / 106L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day12.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$468
14 days+$468
30 days+$467
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$408
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 199 -8.0% -16.8% 57% 42% -7.3%
≤30d 200 -8.5% -17.2% 56% 42% -7.3%
≤90d 234 -11.7% -20.1% 55% 41% -7.6%
all 234 -11.7% -20.1% 55% 41% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.1% 41% -7.6%
10% -27.7% 26% -16.4%
15% -34.7% 18% -24.5%
20% -41.1% 12% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -20% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$23 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,236
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses128 / 106
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)234 / 234
History coverage44d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day12.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 234 Trades
no open positions (76 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $367 +$150 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $310 −$4 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $52 +$42 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $309 +$64 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $620 +$22 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $312 +$7 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$13 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$27 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $26 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $312 +$124 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $53 −$52 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $310 +$21 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $248 +$24 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $175 +$196 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $87 +$87 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $363 −$350 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $366 +$61 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $349 +$42 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $278 +$69 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $268 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $415 −$415 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $517 +$77 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $335 +$16 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $309 +$33 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $301 +$15 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $310 −$2 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $300 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$12 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $312 +$58 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $28 +$8 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $309 −$14 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $336 +$71 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $310 +$113 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$4 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $413 −$2 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $259 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $312 −$141 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $312 −$300 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $458 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $314 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $306 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $310 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $28 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $33 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $61 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $311 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $309 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $12 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $316 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $307 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $314 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $313 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $0 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $319 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $312 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $15 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $4 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 632 history records