Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:51:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
CC 0xccdd…c38c crypto 157 markets active 1h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$36 (+4%) realized +$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%79W / 78L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$55
14 days+$55
30 days+$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% +$22
crypto 40% +$29
other 14% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +27.2% +15.1% 62% 62% +38.0%
≤30d 8 +27.2% +15.1% 62% 62% +38.0%
≤90d 138 -13.7% -21.9% 46% 46% -9.3%
all 157 -4.6% -13.7% 50% 50% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 50% -6.8%
10% -21.9% 48% -15.7%
15% -29.5% 43% -23.9%
20% -36.4% 38% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses79 / 78
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)157 / 157
History coverage111d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 157 Trades
no open positions (29 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $6 +$15 +250%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -58%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 +$8 +56%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +46%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 +$11 +109%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 12 $57 +$32 +57%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $8 −$8 -98%
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5) May 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Vinícius Júnior record the most assists in the 2025-26 UEFA Champ May 06 $2 −$2 -98%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score May 06 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Atlético Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 05 $2 −$1 -98%
Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League final? Apr 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Atlético Madrid win Copa Del Rey? Apr 18 $23 −$23 -99%
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? Apr 15 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Real Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? Apr 15 $60 −$33 -55%
Will Barcelona reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? Apr 15 $101 +$122 +121%
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League semifin Apr 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Atlético Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? Apr 14 $27 −$27 -100%
FC Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score Apr 08 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Apr 08 $7 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Apr 08 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Apr 08 $3 +$2 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Apr 08 $5 +$7 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Apr 08 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Apr 08 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Apr 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? Apr 04 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $4 −$4 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Mar 27 $4 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Mar 27 $15 +$7 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Mar 27 $4 +$2 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Mar 27 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Mar 27 $4 −$2 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Mar 27 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Mar 27 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Mar 27 $4 −$2 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Mar 27 $3 −$3 -94%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-03-22? Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Mar 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Mar 26 $11 +$18 +167%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Mar 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Mar 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Mar 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Mar 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Mar 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 10¢ $2 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $10 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 21h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $6 23h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 23h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $2 41h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 43h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $13 44h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $10 3d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 48¢ $52 16d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 53¢ $35 16d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 24¢ $8 36d
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5) BUY Real Madrid CF 4¢ $2 36d
Will Vinícius Júnior record the most assists in the 2025-26 UEFA Champ BUY No 18¢ $2 39d
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score BUY No 30¢ $3 39d
Will Atlético Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League final? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 41d
Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League final? BUY No 37¢ $5 48d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 26¢ $7 48d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 26¢ $14 48d
Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League final? BUY No 37¢ $5 49d
Will Atlético Madrid win Copa Del Rey? BUY Yes 70¢ $4 58d
Will Atlético Madrid win Copa Del Rey? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 58d
Will Atlético Madrid win Copa Del Rey? BUY Yes 69¢ $9 58d
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? BUY No 33¢ $15 60d
Will Real Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 60d
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? BUY No 15¢ $14 61d
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? BUY No 15¢ $4 61d
Will Real Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 61d
Will Real Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 61d
Will Real Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? SELL Yes 16¢ $13 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 389 history records