Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:34:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xccdd…2310 crypto 95 markets active 0h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$371 (-23%) realized −$371 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate40%38W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days−$401
14 days−$401
30 days−$401
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 62% −$444
crypto 37% +$38
other 1% −$11
sports 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-0.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 +21.8% +10.2% 44% 39% -34.4%
≤30d 85 +21.8% +10.2% 44% 39% -34.4%
≤90d 95 +10.4% -0.2% 40% 36% -35.1%
all 95 +10.4% -0.2% 40% 36% -35.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.2% 36% -35.1%
10% -9.7% 32% -41.3%
15% -18.4% 28% -47.0%
20% -26.4% 24% -52.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$10 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$371
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses38 / 57
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)95 / 95
History coverage67d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 95 Trades
no open positions (53 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 18 $61 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $25 −$24 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$11 +203%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$6 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $25 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 18 $64 +$23 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $52 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $41 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $27 +$24 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $38 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$3 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$3 +315%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$7 +670%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $22 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $25 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $4 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $16 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $11 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $30 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $21 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $17 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $10 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $64 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $52 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $59 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $51 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $1 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 187 history records