Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:54:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
CC 0xccde…b4f8 other 109 markets active 13h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$28 (-0%) realized −$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate10%11W / 96L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$303per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$267now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$10
14 days−$11
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$20
politics 20% −$7
sports 6% −$1
world 3% −$1
economics 3% −$1
tech 1% $0
finance 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -16.8% -24.7% 0% 0% -11.2%
≤30d 17 -6.0% -15.0% 6% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 106 -1.4% -10.8% 10% 8% -9.6%
all 107 -1.4% -10.8% 10% 8% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 8% -9.6%
10% -19.3% 8% -18.3%
15% -27.1% 7% -26.2%
20% -34.2% 7% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×5.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$267
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses11 / 96
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)107 / 109
History coverage92d
Avg bet$303
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $192 $192 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $75 $75 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $36 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $62 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $54 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $341 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $61 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $44 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $56 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $59 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $50 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $34 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $589 −$1 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 01 $36 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? Jun 01 $129 $0 +0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $65 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $46 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $42 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $1,141 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 18 $284 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 17 $516 −$1 -0%
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 17 $290 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $290 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $1,655 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $282 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $493 −$1 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 14 $301 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $583 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $277 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 10 $298 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $586 −$1 -0%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 08 $286 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $279 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $292 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $293 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $274 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $274 −$1 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 03 $282 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 02 $300 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $290 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $879 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 01 $292 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in April? May 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $306 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 29 $297 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 28 $846 −$1 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 25 $299 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 25 $595 −$1 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 24 $277 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $307 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $815 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $36 13h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $36 16h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $75 3d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $62 3d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $62 3d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $54 4d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $54 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 4d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $43 5d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $43 5d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $192 6d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $61 6d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $61 6d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $44 11d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $44 11d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $56 12d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $56 12d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $58 14d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $59 14d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $50 17d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $50 17d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $57 18d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $57 18d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $34 19d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $34 19d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $39 20d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $39 20d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 99¢ $36 21d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $36 21d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $65 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $267.10 · official $267.10 (match) · 340 history records