Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:51:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
CC 0xccde…8493 other 32 markets active 12h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$39 (+25%) realized +$39 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR66%break-even
Win rate66%21W / 11L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$38
14 days+$37
30 days+$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% +$24
sports 37% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +66%
net ROI/market (all)+8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +23.9% +12.1% 69% 69% +13.9%
≤30d 32 +19.3% +8.0% 66% 66% +11.6%
≤90d 32 +19.3% +8.0% 66% 66% +11.6%
all 32 +19.3% +8.0% 66% 66% +11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.0% 66% +11.6%
10% -2.4% 59% +0.9%
15% -11.8% 53% -8.8%
20% -20.4% 47% -17.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +28% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.86 per $1 lost it wins $2.86
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses21 / 11
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage8d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3 +$2 +52%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 +$1 +68%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 +$2 +44%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $2 +$1 +73%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $32 +$8 +25%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3 −$2 -76%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $4 +$3 +76%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2 +$1 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $21 +$5 +23%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $2 −$1 -58%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 +$4 +137%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +70%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +43%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2 +$2 +109%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $2 +$3 +124%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 −$2 -54%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $14 +$2 +13%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -58%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $13 +$3 +22%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $8 +$5 +64%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +66%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +196%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +109%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +53%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 +$3 +134%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 76¢ $3 12h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 12h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $3 18h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 19h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $2 19h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $40 32h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 76¢ $32 32h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 33h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $3 35h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $2 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 81¢ $21 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $4 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 3d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 78¢ $7 3d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $2 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $4 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 4d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $2 4d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 4d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $2 5d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $16 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 63 history records