Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:43:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CC
0xcce4…a82d
other · 306 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$67 -16%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$66 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$8
Realized−$66
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses128 / 170
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)298 / 306
History coverage479d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%
Chart Positions 7 History 298 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 8.5 Corners Under 52¢ 52¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Over 35¢ 34¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Florian Wirtz record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 7¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+45%)
Will Ecuador reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 12¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Toulouse FC 46¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Over 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Singapore win on 2026-03-26? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Kolkata Knight Riders Kolkata Knight Riders 59¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Singapore win on 2026-03-31? No 45¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Knicks Knicks 39¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$2 +166%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1 +$2 +185%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $2 +$1 +73%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Apr 03 $1 −$1 -98%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Kolkata Knight Riders Mar 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Georgia win on 2026-03-29? Mar 29 $1 +$1 +122%
Will Singapore win on 2026-03-31? Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Who will finish higher: Russell or Antonelli? Mar 29 $1 +$1 +99%
Will Singapore win on 2026-03-26? Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-11? Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-1.5) Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Colorado Rapids SC win on 2026-03-07? Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-03-15? Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bologna FC 1909 vs. AS Roma: Both Teams to Score Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-03-14? Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-03-15? Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 2.5 Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Tour de France 2025: Will 145+ riders finish? Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-15? Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5) Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-1.5) Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 2.5 Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-22? Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Fulham FC win on 2025-12-13? Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
F1 Hungarian GP: Hamilton vs. Leclerc Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Twente '65 win on 2026-03-21? Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Atalanta BC (-1.5) Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-1.5) Mar 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-03-22? Mar 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-12-20? Mar 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-1.5) Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Toulouse FC (-1.5) Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-18? Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Eintracht Frankfurt (-1.5) Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: SC Freiburg (-1.5) Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Eintracht Frankfurt (-1.5) Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Lando Norris win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix? Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Mar 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Mar 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: RC Strasbourg Alsace (-1.5) Mar 21 $1 +$1 +82%
Lakers vs. Rockets Mar 21 $1 +$1 +85%
Spread: SC Freiburg (-1.5) Mar 21 $1 +$2 +163%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) Mar 19 $1 +$2 +150%
Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-03-15? Mar 16 $1 +$1 +75%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-03-15? Mar 15 $1 +$1 +69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 49% −$25
sports 41% −$9
culture 9% −$28
world 1% −$1
crypto 0% −$2
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 8.5 Corners BUY Under 52¢ $2 1h
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 3h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 35¢ $2 11h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $1 11h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) AND Will Sc BUY 20¢ $2 25h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY 37¢ $1 2d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $3 2d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 34¢ $1 2d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $2 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 39¢ $1 5d
Will Ecuador reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 9d
Will Florian Wirtz record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 9d
Will Ecuador reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 9d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 12¢ $1 9d
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) BUY Toulouse FC 46¢ $1 72d
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Kolkata Knight Riders BUY Kolkata Knight Riders 59¢ $2 77d
Will Georgia win on 2026-03-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 77d
Will Georgia win on 2026-03-29? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 77d
Will Singapore win on 2026-03-31? BUY No 45¢ $1 77d
Who will finish higher: Russell or Antonelli? SELL Antonelli 99¢ $2 77d
Who will finish higher: Russell or Antonelli? BUY Antonelli 50¢ $1 77d
Will Singapore win on 2026-03-26? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 83d
Spread: Eintracht Frankfurt (-1.5) BUY Eintracht Frankfurt 13¢ $1 84d
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-03-22? BUY No 57¢ $2 84d
Will FC Twente '65 win on 2026-03-21? BUY No 35¢ $1 85d
Spread: SC Freiburg (-1.5) BUY SC Freiburg 15¢ $1 85d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-21? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 85d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Lakers 54¢ $1 87d
Spread: RC Strasbourg Alsace (-1.5) BUY HNK Rijeka 55¢ $1 89d
Spread: SC Freiburg (-1.5) BUY SC Freiburg 38¢ $1 89d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +44.8% +31.0% 60% 60% +40.3%
≤30d 5 +44.8% +31.0% 60% 60% +40.3%
≤90d 48 -57.8% -61.8% 19% 19% -78.2%
all 298 -5.7% -14.7% 43% 43% -24.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 43% -24.2%
10% -22.8% 42% -31.5%
15% -30.3% 39% -38.1%
20% -37.1% 36% -44.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.45 · official $8.45 (match) · 614 history records