Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T17:18:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

CC 0xcce4…4770 other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 548d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$128 (-3%) realized −$143 · open +$15

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -73% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -75% what you keep after slip

Net edge-75%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$1,065per market

Trades / day0.0pace

Kalshi-fit75%portable

Net worth$4,015now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 548d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-75.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	-18.0%	-25.8%	0%	0%	-25.8%
≤30d	1	-18.0%	-25.8%	0%	0%	-25.8%
≤90d	1	-18.0%	-25.8%	0%	0%	-25.8%
all	3	-72.7%	-75.3%	0%	0%	-75.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-75.3%	0%	-75.9%
10%	-77.6%	0%	-78.2%
15%	-79.8%	0%	-80.3%
20%	-81.8%	0%	-82.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -18% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -73% · $-wt -73% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

— vs −$38 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

548d coverage

Net worth$4,015

Realized−$143

Unrealized+$15

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 3

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage548d

Avg bet$1,065

Trades / day0.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	13¢	13¢	$4,000	$4,015	+$15 (+0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Jun 22	$50	−$9	-18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Mar 22	$5	−$5	-100%
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2024?	Mar 22	$99	−$99	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	13¢	$4,104	1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	SELL Yes	36¢	$41	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	BUY Up	10¢	$5	92d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	BUY Yes	44¢	$50	92d
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2024?	BUY Yes	27¢	$99	547d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,015.15 · official $4,045.45 (match) · 7 history records