Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:27:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
CC 0xcce5…afb0 crypto 219 markets active 2h ago coverage 181d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,241 (-4%) realized −$1,236 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate46%100W / 117L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$153per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$43
7 days+$43
14 days−$45
30 days−$316
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 38% +$2,291
other 31% −$424
crypto 29% −$2,984
culture 1% −$9
politics 1% +$26
tech 0% −$115
world 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +59.0% +43.9% 75% 75% +45.4%
≤30d 58 +9.3% -1.1% 48% 47% -25.3%
≤90d 84 -2.6% -11.9% 44% 43% -26.4%
all 217 -10.4% -18.9% 46% 42% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.9% 42% -12.9%
10% -26.7% 40% -21.2%
15% -33.8% 36% -28.8%
20% -40.3% 29% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$95 vs −$91 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

181d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$1,236
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses100 / 117
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions2
Markets (closed)217 / 219
History coverage181d
Avg bet$153
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 217 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 45¢ 39¢ $33 $28 −$5 (-14%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 80 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $20 +$13 +65%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $34 +$12 +34%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? AND Switzerland to score fir Jun 24 $10 +$24 +236%
Switzerland vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $17 −$17 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $8 +$8 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $28 −$28 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $24 −$24 -98%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 0 Czechia? Jun 12 $15 +$7 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$31 +153%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $10 +$9 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET May 31 $97 −$93 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET May 31 $224 −$103 -46%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $152 +$96 +63%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds May 31 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Poland win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $122 −$120 -99%
Will Serbia win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $182 +$121 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 31 $10 +$19 +181%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 31 $60 −$59 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 31 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 31 $3 −$3 -96%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner May 31 $98 −$96 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner May 31 $36 −$35 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET May 31 $67 +$35 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 31 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 31 $2 +$5 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 31 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 31 $21 +$20 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET May 31 $57 −$8 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 31 $66 +$25 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 31 $21 +$18 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 31 $21 +$13 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 31 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 31 $26 +$19 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 31 $17 +$17 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 31 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 31 $21 +$23 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 31 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 31 $10 +$4 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 31 $72 +$9 +12%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 May 31 $30 +$30 +97%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 30 $51 −$50 -99%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $51 +$35 +68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 45¢ $34 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL No 84¢ $34 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $25 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY No 50¢ $20 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 74¢ $34 25h
Switzerland vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 51¢ $6 28h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? AND Switzerland to score fir BUY 29¢ $10 28h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $15 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $4 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $4 13d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 27¢ $8 13d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 13d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 1 Czechia? BUY Yes 40¢ $15 13d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 0 Czechia? SELL No 100¢ $22 13d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 0 Czechia? BUY No 69¢ $15 13d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 51¢ $20 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 13d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $19 14d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 99¢ $19 14d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 53¢ $10 14d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY 39¢ $20 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $97 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $3 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.06 · official $53.06 (match) · 511 history records