Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:27:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xcce6…5795 crypto 164 markets active 2h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,128 (-9%) realized −$1,130 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate53%87W / 76L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$77now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$192
7 days+$192
14 days−$297
30 days−$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,346
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +3.2% -6.6% 75% 75% +7.7%
≤30d 46 -9.7% -18.3% 57% 54% -11.1%
≤90d 163 -13.7% -21.9% 53% 50% -19.4%
all 163 -13.7% -21.9% 53% 50% -19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.9% 50% -19.4%
10% -29.4% 37% -27.1%
15% -36.2% 26% -34.2%
20% -42.5% 19% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$51 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$77
Realized−$1,130
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses87 / 76
Open positions1
Markets (closed)163 / 164
History coverage70d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 163 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Down 48¢ 50¢ $75 $77 +$2 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 22 $310 +$189 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 22 $78 +$45 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 22 $207 +$29 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 22 $103 −$78 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 22 $51 +$12 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 22 $103 +$22 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 22 $101 +$25 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 11 $19 −$18 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 11 $81 −$78 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 11 $78 −$76 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 11 $196 −$136 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 11 $186 +$22 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 11 $164 +$11 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 11 $165 −$8 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 11 $162 +$29 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 11 $83 −$80 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 11 $122 −$73 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 11 $41 +$12 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 11 $40 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 09 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 09 $36 +$19 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 09 $25 +$16 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 09 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 09 $26 +$25 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 09 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 09 $20 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 09 $111 −$110 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 08 $126 −$27 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 08 $72 +$61 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 08 $27 −$20 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 08 $111 +$26 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 04 $107 +$53 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 03 $54 +$27 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 03 $68 +$14 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 03 $27 +$25 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 03 $72 +$56 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 03 $54 −$13 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 03 $112 −$10 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 03 $72 +$17 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 03 $72 +$61 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 03 $99 −$62 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 03 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 03 $22 −$18 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 02 $184 +$77 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 18 $71 −$69 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 18 $71 −$70 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 18 $71 +$71 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 18 $144 −$95 -66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $499 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $78 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $77 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $77 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $78 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $78 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $122 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $78 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $236 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Down 14¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $126 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $29 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $19 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $81 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $78 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 11¢ $24 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $36 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $31 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $165 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $207 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $21 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.34 · official $77.34 (match) · 438 history records