trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 10 | +13.8% | +2.9% | 40% | 30% | +9.1% |
| ≤30d | 19 | -19.5% | -27.2% | 21% | 16% | -17.8% |
| ≤90d | 23 | -4.5% | -13.6% | 35% | 30% | -1.5% |
| all | 23 | -4.5% | -13.6% | 35% | 30% | -1.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -13.6% | 30% | -1.5% |
| 10% | -21.9% | 30% | -10.9% |
| 15% | -29.4% | 30% | -19.5% |
| 20% | -36.4% | 26% | -27.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? | Yes | 59¢ | 92¢ | $1,236 | $1,916 | +$681 (+55%) |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | Yes | 66¢ | 68¢ | $1,112 | $1,137 | +$25 (+2%) |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-25? | Yes | 47¢ | 46¢ | $830 | $821 | −$9 (-1%) |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | No | 22¢ | 17¢ | $400 | $309 | −$91 (-23%) |
| Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by June 30? | No | 8¢ | 95¢ | $8 | $100 | +$92 (+1145%) |
| Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? | Yes | 87¢ | 100¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+15%) |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes | 14¢ | 10¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-32%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will United States win on 2026-06-19? | Jun 19 | $1,017 | +$650 | +64% |
| Iran coup attempt by June 30? | Jun 19 | $10 | −$4 | -36% |
| Will England win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 17 | $59 | +$41 | +69% |
| Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? | Jun 17 | $27 | −$27 | -99% |
| Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? | Jun 17 | $18 | +$82 | +471% |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 17 | $78 | −$72 | -93% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | Jun 17 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? | Jun 14 | $1 | $0 | -40% |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 14 | $2,093 | +$13 | +1% |
| Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? | Jun 14 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 13 | $723 | −$492 | -68% |
| Will USD reach 2.0M Iranian rials by June 30? | Jun 13 | $5 | −$3 | -53% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 12 | $727 | −$387 | -53% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 15? | Jun 12 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | Jun 12 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Jun 11 | $2,669 | −$434 | -16% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 15? | Jun 11 | $1 | −$1 | -59% |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | Jun 11 | $306 | −$38 | -12% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | May 26 | $91 | −$42 | -47% |
| Will the US not strike Iran by April 4, 2026? | May 06 | $170 | +$82 | +48% |
| Will the US not strike Iran by March 31, 2026? | May 06 | $244 | +$163 | +67% |
| Nothing Ever Happens: US Strike Edition | May 06 | $822 | +$498 | +61% |
| Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | May 06 | $949 | +$863 | +91% |