Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:04:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CC 0xcce9…2199 crypto 1139 markets active 1h ago coverage 109d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 108d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$446 (-0%) realized −$395 · open −$51
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate88%1004W / 132L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$162per market
Trades / day19.0pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$963now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$76
7 days+$318
14 days+$513
30 days+$819
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 55% +$1,910
other 30% −$3,698
weather 15% +$768
politics 1% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -18.0% -25.8% 64% 28% -5.4%
≤30d 95 -8.3% -17.0% 62% 23% -6.6%
≤90d 511 +2.3% -7.5% 86% 13% -9.7%
all 1136 +1.2% -8.5% 88% 21% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 21% -10.0%
10% -17.2% 4% -18.6%
15% -25.2% 3% -26.5%
20% -32.6% 2% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$65 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$963
Realized−$395
Unrealized−$51
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses1004 / 132
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1136 / 1139
History coverage109d ⚠
Avg bet$162
Trades / day19.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 22? No 89¢ 84¢ $582 $548 −$34 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 22? No 99¢ 99¢ $256 $256 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 22? No 75¢ 68¢ $175 $159 −$16 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $356 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $180 +$20 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 21? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 21? Jun 21 $6 −$5 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 20? Jun 20 $192 +$11 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 21? Jun 20 $57 −$55 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 21? Jun 20 $48 −$47 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 20? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 20? Jun 19 $50 −$48 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $483 +$25 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 19? Jun 19 $793 +$33 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 19? Jun 19 $356 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 17? Jun 18 $1,521 +$67 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1,119 +$46 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $644 −$89 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $155 +$21 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 18? Jun 18 $49 +$100 +204%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $90 +$14 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $352 +$84 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $125 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $820 +$104 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $295 +$9 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $18 −$14 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $37 +$50 +138%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 15? Jun 14 $934 +$21 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $347 +$12 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 15? Jun 14 $429 +$7 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $285 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $303 +$24 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $111 −$111 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $210 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $426 +$137 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 12? Jun 13 $67 −$67 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12? Jun 13 $84 +$69 +83%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 12? Jun 13 $185 +$13 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 12? Jun 13 $345 +$26 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 12? Jun 13 $545 +$24 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 11? Jun 12 $110 −$110 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1,521 −$65 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 10? Jun 12 $466 −$280 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $287 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $242 −$12 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $382 +$15 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $254 +$283 +112%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 10? Jun 09 $724 +$25 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $517 −$34 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 8? Jun 09 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 9? Jun 09 $324 +$135 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $526 +$39 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 22? BUY No 75¢ $178 46m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 22? BUY No 96¢ $197 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 22? BUY No 92¢ $123 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $256 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 22? BUY No 84¢ $266 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $356 17h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 21? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 22h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 21? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 22h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 21? BUY No 89¢ $180 29h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 21? BUY Yes 32¢ $48 34h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 21? BUY Yes 38¢ $57 34h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 20? BUY No 3¢ $3 44h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 20? BUY No 95¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 20? BUY No 94¢ $159 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 20? BUY No 95¢ $32 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 20? BUY Yes 24¢ $50 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $507 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $826 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $357 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 95¢ $483 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $312 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 19? BUY No 94¢ $86 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 19? BUY No 94¢ $42 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 19? BUY No 94¢ $52 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $356 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 19? BUY No 94¢ $274 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 19? BUY No 93¢ $28 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $1,150 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 18? SELL Yes 100¢ $678 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $176 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $963.00 · official $963.00 (match) · 3500 history records