Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:33:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xcced…43aa world 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 488d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate41%9W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% +$1
other 32% $0
politics 5% −$2
weather 4% −$11
sports 2% +$10
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.9% -8.7% 14% 14% -8.3%
≤30d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 23% 8% -9.3%
≤90d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 23% 8% -9.3%
all 22 +1.0% -8.6% 41% 9% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 9% -9.9%
10% -17.3% 5% -18.5%
15% -25.3% 5% -26.4%
20% -32.6% 5% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

488d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses9 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage488d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $31 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $56 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $11 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $52 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $17 +$3 +18%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $4 $0 -12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $29 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 08 $33 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 05 $28 −$1 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $96 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $46 −$1 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $55 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $8 $0 -3%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Dec 10 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $2 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 23–30? May 31 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $103000 on May 9? May 11 $1 $0 +2%
Will Doc Rivers make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of Mar 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump issue an executive order on February 26? Feb 25 $8 −$3 -30%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 48-49°F on February 24? Feb 24 $20 −$11 -56%
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election? Feb 23 $20 $0 +1%
Eastern Kentucky vs. Bellarmine Feb 21 $10 +$10 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $31 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $31 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $11 26h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $41 28h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 73¢ $52 28h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $4 40h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 41h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $6 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $52 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $52 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 20¢ $20 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 17¢ $17 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $2 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $2 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $4 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $29 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $29 4d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $33 13d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $33 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 35¢ $9 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 35¢ $6 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 35¢ $13 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 36¢ $4 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 36¢ $25 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $24 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $22 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $26 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 62 history records