Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:56:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
CC 0xccee…3eed sports 107 markets active 1h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$190 (+7%) realized +$249 · open −$59
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate38%33W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$260now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$194
7 days+$208
14 days+$208
30 days+$208
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$181
politics 25% +$13
other 14% +$61
world 7% +$251
economics 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +38.2% +25.1% 50% 50% +14.7%
≤30d 30 +38.2% +25.1% 50% 50% +14.7%
≤90d 88 +13.0% +2.3% 38% 36% -2.0%
all 88 +13.0% +2.3% 38% 36% -2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.3% 36% -2.0%
10% -7.5% 33% -11.4%
15% -16.5% 26% -20.0%
20% -24.6% 24% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$17 · ×2.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$260
Realized+$249
Unrealized−$59
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses33 / 55
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions19
Markets (closed)88 / 107
History coverage71d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Over 76¢ 76¢ $70 $70 −$0 (-1%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Over 90¢ 68¢ $50 $38 −$12 (-24%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 Over 94¢ 94¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Over 68¢ 32¢ $50 $24 −$26 (-52%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes 37¢ 36¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-5%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 44¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+39%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-5%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 40¢ 26¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-34%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Over 42¢ 12¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-73%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Yes $5 $2 −$3 (-61%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-18%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country? Yes $5 $1 −$4 (-75%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country? Yes $5 $1 −$4 (-89%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-69%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 49 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $5 +$4 +77%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Jun 17 $29 −$1 -4%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $101 +$26 +26%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $30 +$22 +73%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$53 +259%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $35 +$22 +62%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $96 −$95 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $66 +$25 +38%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $14 +$12 +86%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $61 +$32 +52%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 +$32 +105%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $101 +$89 +88%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $10 +$30 +294%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Iraq leading at halftime? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 +$9 +93%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $19 +$13 +70%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
France to score first vs. Senegal? Jun 16 $15 +$7 +48%
Senegal to score first vs. France? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 15 $5 +$59 +1181%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $9 −$9 -99%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5 May 10 $50 +$9 +17%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 10 $50 +$6 +11%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5 May 10 $46 −$45 -99%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5 May 06 $7 −$7 -99%
FC Bayern München leading at halftime? May 06 $6 −$6 -97%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Draw at halftime? May 06 $15 −$15 -98%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 1.5 May 05 $20 −$20 -98%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 29 $5 −$5 -97%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 29 $130 +$6 +5%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 29 $15 +$2 +17%
Arsenal FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 24 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 24 $14 −$14 -100%
Will SC Braga win on 2026-04-16? Apr 16 $25 +$14 +56%
Will Real Betis Balompié vs. SC Braga end in a draw? Apr 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. FC Porto: O/U 1.5 Apr 16 $26 −$26 -99%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $14 +$71 +509%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Apr 15 $15 +$36 +242%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $25 −$24 -98%
Arsenal FC vs. Sporting CP: O/U 1.5 Apr 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 59m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $15 59m
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 1h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $9 1h
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House SELL Yes 42¢ $27 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $25 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $25 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $71 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 1h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $50 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $10 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $50 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $53 2h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $73 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 79¢ $101 2h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 28¢ $5 3h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 27¢ $15 3h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $30 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 33¢ $15 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 14¢ $5 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 36¢ $15 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $81 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 24¢ $26 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $35 6h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $14 23h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 23h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $66 23h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $260.34 · official $263.32 · 170 history records