Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:56:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
CC 0xccf1…25a0 sports 1375 markets active 1h ago coverage 95d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 94d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$73,836 (+13%) realized +$73,839 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate58%795W / 577L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$405per market
Trades / day24.2pace
Fees−$3,835est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$11,195now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 95d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$5,128
other 11% +$1,028
world 0% +$2
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 197 +16.7% +5.6% 93% 21% +18.8%
≤30d 489 +5.6% -4.4% 81% 21% -4.5%
≤90d 1189 +1.7% -8.0% 60% 35% -9.4%
all 1372 +1.0% -8.6% 58% 36% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.6% 36% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -17.4% 35% -19.0%
15% -25.4% 33% -26.8%
20% -32.7% 30% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +15% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$307 vs −$430 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$11,195
Realized+$73,839
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses795 / 577
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$3,835
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1372 / 1375
History coverage95d ⚠
Avg bet$405
Trades / day24.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1372 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gary Woodland win the 2026 U.S. Open? No 99¢ 99¢ $2,000 $1,998 −$2 (-0%)
Will Dustin Johnson win the 2026 U.S. Open? No 100¢ 99¢ $1,000 $999 −$1 (-0%)
Will Jackson Koivun win the 2026 U.S. Open? No 99¢ 99¢ $248 $249 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 199 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $42 +$39 +93%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $42 +$87 +206%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $26 −$26 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $37 −$36 -98%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $47 −$47 -99%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 16 $70 +$42 +60%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 Jun 16 $0 $0 +58%
Spread: Hurricanes (-2.5) Jun 15 $179 +$249 +139%
Will Keith Mitchell finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open Jun 15 $78 +$1 +1%
Will Keith Mitchell finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open Jun 15 $32 +$1 +2%
Will A.J. Ewart finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 15 $117 +$1 +1%
Will Erik Van Rooyen finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open Jun 15 $262 +$1 +0%
Will Erik Van Rooyen finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Ope Jun 15 $69 +$1 +1%
Will Kevin Yu finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 15 $257 +$1 +0%
Will Matthieu Pavon finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open Jun 15 $189 +$1 +1%
Will Kevin Yu finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 15 $32 +$1 +2%
Will Matthieu Pavon finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 15 $320 +$1 +0%
Will Sam Burns finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 15 $129 +$69 +53%
Will Tommy Fleetwood finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Ope Jun 15 $30 +$11 +36%
Will Sam Burns finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 15 $73 +$1 +1%
Will Max Homa finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 15 $78 +$1 +1%
Will Emiliano Grillo finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open Jun 15 $118 +$1 +1%
Will Alex Fitzpatrick finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Op Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will Emiliano Grillo finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Ope Jun 15 $466 +$28 +6%
Will Alex Fitzpatrick finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Ope Jun 15 $87 +$2 +2%
Will Max Homa finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 15 $266 +$1 +0%
Will William Mouw finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 15 $42 $0 +1%
Will Keita Nakajima finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open Jun 15 $209 +$1 +0%
Will Keita Nakajima finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 15 $387 +$2 +0%
Will Patrick Fishburn finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Op Jun 15 $418 +$1 +0%
Will Collin Morikawa finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Ope Jun 15 $222 +$57 +26%
Will Taylor Pendrith finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Ope Jun 15 $78 +$1 +1%
Will Taylor Pendrith finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Ope Jun 15 $27 +$1 +3%
Will Shane Lowry finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 15 $78 +$1 +1%
Will Tony Finau finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 15 $32 +$1 +2%
Will Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 RBC Ca Jun 15 $78 +$1 +1%
Will Shane Lowry finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 15 $78 +$1 +1%
Will Harry Hall finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 15 $155 +$2 +1%
Will Taylor Moore finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 15 $247 +$1 +0%
Will Taylor Moore finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 15 $250 +$1 +0%
Will Vince Whaley finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 15 $275 +$1 +0%
Will Vince Whaley finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 15 $227 +$2 +1%
Will Vince Whaley finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 15 $191 +$1 +0%
Will Nick Taylor finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 15 $35 +$4 +12%
Will Nick Taylor finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 15 $162 +$1 +0%
Will Nick Taylor finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 15 $235 +$1 +0%
Will Chandler Blanchet finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 RBC Canadian O Jun 15 $78 +$1 +1%
Will Chandler Blanchet finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Canadian O Jun 15 $254 +$1 +0%
Will Jimmy Stanger win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 15 $110 $0 +0%
Will Lanto Griffin finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 15 $236 +$3 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Dustin Johnson win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 100¢ $1,000 1h
Will Gary Woodland win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 99¢ $2,000 1h
Will Jackson Koivun win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 99¢ $249 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 51¢ $42 25h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 54¢ $26 26h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 32¢ $42 26h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 41¢ $37 27h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 51¢ $47 27h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 62¢ $70 2d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 63¢ $0 2d
Spread: Hurricanes (-2.5) BUY Hurricanes 39¢ $46 3d
Spread: Hurricanes (-2.5) BUY Hurricanes 42¢ $133 3d
Will Sam Burns finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY No 99¢ $73 3d
Will Doug Ghim finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY No 99¢ $78 3d
Will Luke Clanton finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY No 100¢ $51 3d
Will Luke Clanton finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY No 100¢ $97 3d
Will Luke Clanton finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY No 100¢ $97 3d
Will Shane Lowry finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY No 99¢ $78 3d
Will Max Homa finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY No 100¢ $105 3d
Will Alex Fitzpatrick finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Op BUY No 100¢ $50 3d
Will Collin Morikawa finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open BUY No 100¢ $50 3d
Will Collin Morikawa finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open BUY No 100¢ $60 3d
Will Luke Clanton finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY No 100¢ $260 3d
Will William Mouw finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY No 99¢ $42 3d
Will Tom Kim finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY No 99¢ $78 3d
Will Keith Mitchell finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open BUY No 99¢ $78 3d
Will Collin Morikawa finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Ope BUY No 99¢ $78 3d
Will Max Homa finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY No 99¢ $78 3d
Will Emiliano Grillo finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Ope BUY No 100¢ $105 3d
Will Emiliano Grillo finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Ope BUY No 100¢ $52 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,194.85 · official $11,193.81 (match) · 3500 history records