Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:53:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
CC 0xccf1…bc69 crypto 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$50 (-35%) realized −$49 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -52% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate17%1W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 18d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$85
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-56.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 6 -51.8% -56.3% 17% 0% -77.7%
≤90d 6 -51.8% -56.3% 17% 0% -77.7%
all 6 -51.8% -56.3% 17% 0% -77.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -56.3% 0% -77.7%
10% -60.5% 0% -79.8%
15% -64.3% 0% -81.8%
20% -67.8% 0% -83.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -75% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -52% · $-wt -75% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$17 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$49
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses1 / 5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage18d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? No 1¢ 1¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-5%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Down 49¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 22 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 04 $27 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 04 $2 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 04 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 04 $26 −$25 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.77 · official $24.77 (match) · 16 history records