Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:52:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xccf4…b099 crypto 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (59 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$6 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate38%11W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day59.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$1
other 21% −$4
crypto 13% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (59 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+30.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +44.2% +30.4% 38% 31% -8.7%
≤30d 29 +44.2% +30.4% 38% 31% -8.7%
≤90d 29 +44.2% +30.4% 38% 31% -8.7%
all 29 +44.2% +30.4% 38% 31% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover59.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +30.4% 31% -8.7%
10% ← realistic here +18.0% 24% -17.5%
15% +6.6% 21% -25.4%
20% -3.9% 21% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +44% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +109% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized+$6
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses11 / 18
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions13
Markets (closed)29 / 42
History coverage1d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day59.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-1%)
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Spain 76¢ 76¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-19%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -60%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $14 +$2 +13%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $50 +$3 +6%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $1 +$2 +209%
Japan to score first vs. Netherlands? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $15 +$4 +26%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $63 +$9 +15%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $50 +$1 +2%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$3 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $0 +$6 +2243%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$8 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$3 -19%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 76¢ $10 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $21 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $7 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 7h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 7h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 7h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $14 7h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 86¢ $12 7h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 45¢ $2 8h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $7 9h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $2 9h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $6 9h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 21¢ $1 9h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 34¢ $1 9h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $53 9h
Spread: Germany (-4.5) SELL Germany 98¢ $3 10h
Japan to score first vs. Netherlands? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 10h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $1 10h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Germany 94¢ $19 10h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 10h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 94¢ $50 10h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Germany 99¢ $72 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.71 · official $71.71 (match) · 65 history records