trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? | No | 53¢ | 52¢ | $5 | $5 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? | No | 50¢ | 50¢ | $5 | $5 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? | No | 6¢ | 6¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Thunder vs. Magic: O/U 222.5 | Over | 52¢ | 0¢ | $3 | $0 | −$3 (-100%) |
| Trail Blazers vs. Grizzlies | Grizzlies | 21¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Jazz vs. Kings: O/U 232.5 | Over | 53¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Clippers vs. Pelicans | Clippers | 47¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Spread: Thunder (-8.5) | Timberwolves | 49¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $0 | −$2 (-100%) |
| Celtics vs. Bucks | Bucks | 55¢ | 0¢ | $6 | $0 | −$6 (-100%) |
| Raptors vs. Pelicans | Raptors | 55¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $0 | −$5 (-100%) |
| Spread: Pistons (-3.5) | Pistons | 50¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $0 | −$2 (-100%) |
| Celtics vs. Cavaliers | Cavaliers | 34¢ | 0¢ | $7 | $0 | −$7 (-100%) |
| Spread: Spurs (-9.5) | Spurs | 50¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $0 | −$2 (-100%) |
| Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5) | Cavaliers | 54¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Spread: Knicks (-11.5) | Knicks | 57¢ | 0¢ | $3 | $0 | −$3 (-100%) |
| Knicks vs. Clippers | Knicks | 57¢ | 0¢ | $6 | $0 | −$6 (-100%) |
| Magic vs. Timberwolves | Timberwolves | 70¢ | 0¢ | $7 | $0 | −$7 (-100%) |
| Spread: Clippers (-11.5) | Clippers | 57¢ | 0¢ | $3 | $0 | −$3 (-100%) |
| Nets vs. 76ers | Nets | 24¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | Mar 28 | $1,499 | −$78 | -5% |
| Spread: Spurs (-9.5) | Mar 19 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Spread: Celtics (-11.5) | Mar 19 | $3 | +$2 | +85% |
| Clippers vs. Pelicans | Mar 18 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Thunder vs. Magic: O/U 222.5 | Mar 17 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5) | Mar 17 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Spread: Bucks (-6.5) | Mar 16 | $1 | +$1 | +82% |
| Spread: Pistons (-3.5) | Mar 15 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Spread: Thunder (-8.5) | Mar 15 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Jazz vs. Kings: O/U 232.5 | Mar 15 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Nuggets vs. Lakers | Mar 15 | $1 | +$1 | +127% |
| Spread: Spurs (-5.5) | Mar 15 | $3 | +$2 | +92% |
| Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5) | Mar 14 | $3 | +$2 | +72% |
| Nets vs. 76ers | Mar 14 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Spread: Clippers (-11.5) | Mar 13 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Spread: Knicks (-11.5) | Mar 13 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Spread: Suns (-8.5) | Mar 13 | $5 | +$5 | +100% |
| Raptors vs. Pelicans | Mar 11 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? | Mar 11 | $1 | $0 | -50% |
| Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? | Mar 11 | $1 | $0 | -38% |
| Celtics vs. Spurs | Mar 11 | $5 | +$4 | +73% |
| Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? | Mar 10 | $1 | +$1 | +58% |
| Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? | Mar 10 | $1 | $0 | +6% |
| Magic vs. Bucks | Mar 09 | $6 | +$4 | +82% |
| Knicks vs. Clippers | Mar 08 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Celtics vs. Cavaliers | Mar 08 | $7 | −$7 | -100% |
| Magic vs. Timberwolves | Mar 07 | $7 | −$7 | -100% |
| Clippers vs. Spurs | Mar 07 | $7 | +$3 | +41% |
| Knicks vs. Raptors | Mar 06 | $6 | +$4 | +75% |
| Jazz vs. Wizards | Mar 06 | $6 | +$4 | +66% |
| Hawks vs. Bucks | Mar 05 | $5 | +$5 | +108% |
| Trail Blazers vs. Grizzlies | Mar 04 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Celtics vs. Bucks | Mar 03 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Will the U.S. collect between $100b and $200b in revenue in 2025? | Mar 01 | $913 | −$151 | -16% |
| Will Elche CF vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona end in a draw? | Mar 01 | $1 | $0 | +27% |
| Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1? | Feb 25 | $325 | −$41 | -12% |
| Starmer out by December 31, 2026? | Feb 21 | $1,175 | −$42 | -4% |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026? | Feb 14 | $1,757 | −$417 | -24% |
| Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | Feb 12 | $6,754 | −$190 | -3% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me | Feb 05 | $366 | +$18 | +5% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee | Feb 04 | $417 | −$15 | -4% |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Jan 24 | $1,066 | −$55 | -5% |
| Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? | Jan 24 | $54 | +$23 | +43% |
| Will the U.S. collect between $200b and $500b in revenue in 2025? | Jan 23 | $29 | $0 | +0% |
| Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | Jan 23 | $566 | +$18 | +3% |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | Jan 14 | $2,036 | +$65 | +3% |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | Jan 12 | $13 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025? | Jan 09 | $707 | +$2 | +0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | 6 | -53.3% | -57.8% | 17% | 17% | -14.5% |
| all | 48 | -12.7% | -21.0% | 44% | 31% | -14.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -21.0% | 31% | -14.0% |
| 10% | -28.6% | 31% | -22.2% |
| 15% | -35.5% | 29% | -29.7% |
| 20% | -41.8% | 25% | -36.6% |