trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | -4.4% | -13.5% | 50% | 17% | -11.6% |
| ≤30d | 11 | +3.4% | -6.5% | 73% | 18% | -7.1% |
| ≤90d | 12 | +2.9% | -6.9% | 67% | 17% | -7.3% |
| all | 12 | +2.9% | -6.9% | 67% | 17% | -7.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -6.9% | 17% | -7.3% |
| 10% | -15.8% | 17% | -16.2% |
| 15% | -23.9% | 8% | -24.3% |
| 20% | -31.4% | 8% | -31.7% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | $2 | $2 | +$0 (+7%) |
| Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? | Yes | 4¢ | 4¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? | Yes | 13¢ | 12¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-4%) |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | No | 55¢ | 52¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-5%) |
| Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-6%) |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 17¢ | 5¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-68%) |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | No | 76¢ | 1¢ | $4 | $0 | −$4 (-99%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Jun 15 | $2 | $0 | -17% |
| Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? | Jun 14 | $1 | $0 | -6% |
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? | Jun 14 | $1 | $0 | +4% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? | Jun 14 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 11 | $2 | +$1 | +30% |
| Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? | Jun 11 | $1 | $0 | -39% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | Jun 02 | $3 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? | Jun 01 | $1 | +$1 | +56% |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | May 29 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | May 23 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | May 21 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 | May 13 | $1 | $0 | -2% |