Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:52:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CC 0xccfc…d636 other 428 markets active 2h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$487 (+1%) realized +$484 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate96%406W / 15L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$202per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$460now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$15
14 days+$38
30 days+$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% +$198
sports 37% +$247
weather 13% +$12
finance 7% +$6
politics 2% +$3
crypto 1% +$4
culture 0% $0
world 0% +$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +1.7% -8.0% 100% 0% -7.9%
≤30d 32 -1.0% -10.5% 94% 9% -8.6%
≤90d 421 +1.9% -7.8% 96% 9% -9.0%
all 421 +1.9% -7.8% 96% 9% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 9% -9.0%
10% -16.6% 6% -17.7%
15% -24.7% 5% -25.7%
20% -32.0% 3% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$7 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×5.6 per $1 lost it wins $5.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$460
Realized+$484
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses406 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions7
Markets (closed)421 / 428
History coverage76d
Avg bet$202
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 421 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $410 $0 +0%
Will Spain be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 27 $443 +$15 +3%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $18 +$1 +4%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $16 +$1 +4%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $11 +$1 +8%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Jun 17 $23 +$2 +8%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $398 +$17 +4%
Will Fernando Alonso finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gra Jun 14 $207 +$1 +0%
Will Lance Stroll finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Jun 14 $72 $0 +0%
Will Valtteri Bottas finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gra Jun 14 $56 $0 +0%
Will Sergio Perez finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Jun 14 $57 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Albon finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gra Jun 14 $4 $0 +0%
Will Tgr Haas get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 13 $23 $0 +1%
Will Cadillac get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 13 $370 +$1 +0%
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 11 $390 +$2 +0%
Will Florentino Perez win the 2026 Real Madrid presidential election? Jun 08 $50 $0 +0%
Will Aston Martin have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Mo Jun 07 $150 $0 +0%
Will Cadillac have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Monaco Jun 07 $154 +$1 +0%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $6 +$1 +21%
Will Cadillac get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 06 $62 +$1 +1%
Will Aston Martin get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 06 $100 $0 +0%
Will Tgr Haas get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 06 $12 $0 +1%
Will Audi Revolut get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 06 $10 $0 +2%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 05 $49 +$1 +2%
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $152 +$8 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C or higher on May 31? Jun 01 $205 $0 +0%
Will Real Zaragoza win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $4 +$1 +24%
Roland Garros ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Alexander Zverev May 31 $20 +$1 +7%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $2 +$1 +67%
Roland Garros ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Jesper de Jong May 29 $2 −$2 -99%
LoL: Gen.G vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner May 29 $1,693 +$5 +0%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Jakub Mensik May 29 $4 −$4 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $1,693 +$2 +0%
Will 0 world records be broken at the 2026 Enhanced Games? May 29 $114 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on May 26? May 27 $195 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 72°F or higher on May May 27 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C or higher on May 26? May 27 $195 $0 +0%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Clement Tabur May 26 $331 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on May 26? May 26 $33 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $720 on May 26? May 26 $1,199 +$1 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on May 26? May 26 $18 $0 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on May 26? May 26 $295 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on May 26? May 26 $500 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on May 26? May 26 $1,004 +$1 +0%
Roland Garros ATP: Alexei Popyrin vs Zachary Svajda May 26 $3 −$3 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Adam Walton vs Daniil Medvedev May 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on May 25? May 26 $195 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 70°F or higher on May May 26 $207 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on May 25? May 26 $195 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C or higher on May 25? May 26 $195 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alexander Albon finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Austrian Gran BUY No 100¢ $19 1h
Will Fernando Alonso finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Austrian Gran BUY No 100¢ $97 1h
Will Lance Stroll finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand P BUY No 100¢ $97 1h
Will Valtteri Bottas finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Austrian Gran BUY No 100¢ $87 1h
Will Sergio Perez finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand P BUY No 100¢ $9 1h
Will Sergio Perez finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand P BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Karmine Corp 90¢ $18 4h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 100¢ $410 4h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 96¢ $30 4h
Will Spain be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $18 6d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 96¢ $18 7d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 96¢ $16 8d
Will Spain be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $50 8d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 92¢ $11 9d
Will Spain be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $100 12d
Will Spain be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $245 12d
Will Spain be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $29 12d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 96¢ $16 12d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 96¢ $382 12d
Will Alexander Albon finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gra BUY No 100¢ $4 14d
Will Lance Stroll finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand BUY No 100¢ $72 14d
Will Valtteri Bottas finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gra BUY No 100¢ $47 14d
Will Sergio Perez finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand BUY No 100¢ $57 14d
Will Valtteri Bottas finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gra BUY No 100¢ $9 14d
Will Fernando Alonso finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gra BUY No 100¢ $207 14d
Will Cadillac get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 100¢ $55 15d
Will Tgr Haas get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 99¢ $23 15d
Will Cadillac get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 100¢ $215 15d
Will Cadillac get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 100¢ $100 15d
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? BUY Yes 100¢ $47 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $460.47 · official $460.47 (match) · 1145 history records