Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:04:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
CD 0xcd05…f511 crypto 645 markets active 1d ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate66%426W / 219L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day43.4pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$16
14 days−$30
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$21
other 2% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 -15.2% -23.2% 53% 49% -23.1%
≤30d 645 -4.1% -13.2% 66% 51% -11.6%
≤90d 645 -4.1% -13.2% 66% 51% -11.6%
all 645 -4.1% -13.2% 66% 51% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.2% 51% -11.6%
10% ← realistic here -21.5% 35% -20.1%
15% -29.1% 27% -27.8%
20% -36.0% 16% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses426 / 219
Open positions0
Markets (closed)645 / 645
History coverage28d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day43.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 645 Trades
no open positions (133 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +65%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +9%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +58%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$3 +266%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +38%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$2 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$2 -65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 09 $3 +$4 +133%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$1 -62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 09 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $0 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 26h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 40h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $2 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $1 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 41h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $1 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 43h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $2 44h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 44h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $2 45h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 45h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 45h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 45h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 46h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $1 46h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1499 history records