Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T17:41:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcd0b…8fda politics 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate24%5W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$113per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 36% $0
other 32% $0
sports 18% $0
crypto 14% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
all 21 -0.0% -9.5% 24% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses5 / 16
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage137d
Avg bet$113
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $107 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $107 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? May 30 $107 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $107 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $107 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $107 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $108 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $109 $0 +0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $109 $0 +0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $109 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 04 $109 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $109 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 29 $109 $0 -0%
Will Kentucky win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 21 $109 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? Mar 16 $109 $0 +0%
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 13 $217 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 10 $108 +$1 +0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 06 $108 $0 +0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 04 $108 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 24 $108 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 22 $108 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $107 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $107 15h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $107 6d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $107 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $107 25d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $107 26d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $107 36d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $107 37d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $107 38d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $107 39d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $107 42d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $48 42d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $59 42d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $107 46d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $108 47d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $109 66d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $15 67d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $93 67d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $109 68d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $109 68d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $109 71d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $109 72d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 100¢ $109 80d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $15 81d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $94 81d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $109 84d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $109 84d
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $109 86d
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $69 87d
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $40 87d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 73 history records