Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:58:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CD 0xcd0c…faf5 crypto 1296 markets active 0h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$498 (+2%) realized +$498 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate87%1130W / 166L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day20.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$184
7 days+$376
14 days+$376
30 days+$443
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$412
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 286 +3.0% -6.8% 97% 8% -7.0%
≤30d 658 +1.0% -8.6% 91% 38% -7.9%
≤90d 1296 +0.5% -9.1% 87% 54% -8.3%
all 1296 +0.5% -9.1% 87% 54% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.1% 54% -8.3%
10% ← realistic here -17.8% 10% -17.0%
15% -25.7% 1% -25.1%
20% -33.0% 0% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$14 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$498
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses1130 / 166
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1296 / 1296
History coverage78d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day20.9
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1296 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $117 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $115 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $112 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $117 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $112 +$8 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $116 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $113 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $112 +$8 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $114 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $112 +$8 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $112 +$8 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $117 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $110 +$10 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $114 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $112 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $110 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $104 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $112 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $108 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $107 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $107 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $109 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $106 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $93 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $43 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $110 −$110 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $92 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $113 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $112 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $110 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $109 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 16 $113 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $113 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $115 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $117 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $106 +$14 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $114 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $114 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $115 −$115 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $112 +$8 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $117 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $113 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $115 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $96 +$24 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $117 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $112 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $115 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $116 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $115 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $116 +$4 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $117 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $6 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $84 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $14 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $56 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $42 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $112 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $116 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $68 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $112 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $85 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $28 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $112 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $112 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $6 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $6 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $94 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $110 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $114 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2925 history records