Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:32:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcd0d…7ec8 world 75 markets active 2h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$11,892 (+11%) realized +$11,727 · open +$165
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate49%35W / 36L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$1,384per market
Trades / day11.9pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$1,660now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$966
7 days−$3,025
14 days−$1,703
30 days−$1,703
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% +$2,472
other 34% +$8,635
politics 15% +$609
crypto 8% −$258
sports 1% −$344
culture 1% +$172
tech 1% +$14
finance 0% +$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -5.5% -14.5% 50% 36% -19.4%
≤30d 39 -8.7% -17.4% 49% 28% -14.5%
≤90d 71 -6.8% -15.7% 49% 32% +0.4%
all 71 -6.8% -15.7% 49% 32% +0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.9 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.7% 32% +0.4%
10% ← realistic here -23.8% 25% -9.2%
15% -31.1% 18% -18.0%
20% -37.9% 15% -26.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$1,147) neutral
Persistence
early -11% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$759 vs −$452 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.73 per $1 lost it wins $1.73
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$1,660
Realized+$11,727
Unrealized+$165
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses35 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions4
Markets (closed)71 / 75
History coverage75d
Avg bet$1,384
Trades / day11.9
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m? Yes 77¢ 88¢ $627 $721 +$94 (+15%)
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes $500 $496 −$4 (-1%)
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m? No 73¢ 89¢ $358 $435 +$78 (+22%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes $10 $7 −$4 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 21 $1,128 −$954 -85%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 21 $180 +$33 +18%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $103 +$35 +34%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $375 −$80 -21%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $3,081 −$870 -28%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 19 $250 +$450 +180%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $550 +$177 +32%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 18 $1,059 +$295 +28%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 19? Jun 18 $38 −$30 -79%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 18 $691 +$40 +6%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $81 +$108 +133%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $874 −$472 -54%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 18 $10 −$7 -67%
Will Zendaya and Tom Holland get married by December 31? Jun 18 $116 +$5 +5%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 18 $224 +$7 +3%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 17 $3,184 −$2,690 -84%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $43 +$6 +13%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 17 $177 −$7 -4%
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Pri Jun 16 $4,639 −$1,492 -32%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $10,949 +$2,467 +22%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $15 −$6 -43%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $550 −$169 -31%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $657 +$1,288 +196%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $520 +$441 +85%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $49 +$2 +4%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14 Jun 14 $5 −$1 -27%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $600 +$44 +7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $10 +$2 +15%
Will Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Sp Jun 13 $525 +$14 +3%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $58 −$44 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $50 −$22 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 12 $50 −$22 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $152 −$92 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 12 $14 −$9 -62%
Epstein suicide note released by May 8? May 09 $2,949 −$2,683 -91%
Map Handicap: DRIP (-1.5) vs m1x (+1.5) May 08 $368 −$355 -97%
Will Clavicular cry on stream by May 1, 2026 May 07 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET May 02 $10 +$5 +52%
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? May 02 $8,188 +$6,105 +75%
Will Bryan Johnson have sex again this month? Apr 30 $29 −$23 -78%
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April? Apr 29 $2,348 −$2,311 -98%
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? Apr 29 $15,322 +$3,754 +24%
US fertility rate up in Q1 2026? Apr 27 $50 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? Apr 27 $1,698 +$2,838 +167%
Will the Patek Index hit $107,000 (HIGH) by April 30? Apr 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY Yes 89¢ $7 1h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY Yes 89¢ $12 1h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY Yes 89¢ $12 1h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY Yes 89¢ $16 1h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY Yes 89¢ $8 1h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY Yes 89¢ $8 1h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY Yes 89¢ $8 1h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY Yes 89¢ $8 1h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY Yes 89¢ $8 1h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY Yes 89¢ $8 1h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY Yes 89¢ $8 1h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY Yes 89¢ $154 1h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY Yes 89¢ $9 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 97¢ $214 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 79¢ $101 3h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 39¢ $58 3h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 33¢ $51 4h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $193 7h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 7h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 84¢ $80 17h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 47¢ $80 18h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m BUY No 74¢ $58 20h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m BUY No 73¢ $300 20h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY Yes 70¢ $360 20h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes $207 21h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $150 21h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes $311 23h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No $42 24h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 29¢ $51 25h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $55 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,659.61 · official $1,659.61 (match) · 949 history records