Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:35:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CD 0xcd10…fc0b other 84 markets active 1h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,872 (+14%) realized +$2,886 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate71%55W / 23L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$239per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$891now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$305
14 days+$725
30 days+$1,549
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% +$1,845
tech 7% +$121
crypto 3% +$576
sports 3% +$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -9.1% -17.7% 70% 30% +2.5%
≤30d 42 -0.8% -10.3% 69% 33% +6.9%
≤90d 77 +3.4% -6.5% 70% 42% +3.8%
all 78 +3.4% -6.4% 71% 41% +3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 41% +3.8%
10% -15.4% 26% -6.1%
15% -23.6% 13% -15.2%
20% -31.1% 8% -23.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$32 · ×1.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.53 per $1 lost it wins $4.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$891
Realized+$2,886
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses55 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions6
Markets (closed)78 / 84
History coverage94d
Avg bet$239
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 69¢ 77¢ $369 $412 +$43 (+12%)
GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 35¢ 30¢ $389 $339 −$50 (-13%)
Arcium FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 84¢ 92¢ $70 $77 +$7 (+10%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 50¢ 34¢ $50 $34 −$16 (-31%)
Arcium FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 81¢ 81¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 91¢ 98¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
o1 FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 17 $258 +$2 +1%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 15 $128 +$4 +3%
Will o1 launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 15 $162 +$2 +2%
Will o1 launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $1,237 +$38 +3%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +33%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $19 −$13 -65%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO Jun 12 $106 +$25 +24%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $299 +$321 +107%
Will SpaceX raise between $60B and $70B in its IPO? Jun 12 $18 −$18 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $58 −$58 -100%
YOM FDV above $800M one day after launch? Jun 06 $99 +$1 +1%
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 05 $804 +$631 +78%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 04 $146 −$141 -97%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 04 $111 −$108 -97%
Tea FDV above $500M one day after launch Jun 04 $49 $0 +1%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.75T and 2.00T? Jun 04 $221 +$7 +3%
Tea FDV above $300M one day after launch Jun 04 $180 +$2 +1%
Will SpaceX raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO? Jun 04 $191 +$28 +14%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.8T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 03 $18 −$17 -97%
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Jun 01 $152 +$4 +2%
Will City Protocol launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $4 $0 -7%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $687 +$576 +84%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 31 $45 +$25 +56%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $50 +$2 +4%
Will o1 launch a token by December 31, 2026? May 29 $35 +$9 +26%
Citrea FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 26 $674 −$143 -21%
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 25 $1,431 +$267 +19%
Arcium FDV above $1B one day after launch? May 25 $185 −$5 -2%
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch? May 25 $33 +$13 +40%
Arcium FDV above $800M one day after launch? May 24 $61 −$4 -6%
Solstice FDV above $400M one day after launch? May 23 $22 −$1 -6%
Will prjx launch a token by December 31, 2026? May 22 $25 −$11 -44%
Will prjx launch a token by December 31, 2027? May 22 $39 +$10 +24%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qualifi May 22 $41 +$5 +11%
Nexus FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 21 $221 +$25 +11%
Nexus FDV above $50M one day after launch? May 21 $76 +$2 +2%
Nexus FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 21 $329 +$29 +9%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qual May 21 $101 +$4 +4%
OpenAI IPO before 2027? May 20 $73 +$36 +49%
StandX FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 19 $22 +$1 +6%
Surf FDV above $50M one day after launch? May 19 $81 −$5 -6%
Will Citrea launch a token by September 30, 2026? May 19 $53 $0 +0%
LoL: Team WE vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 13 $244 +$55 +23%
Will Citrea launch a token by December 31, 2027? May 13 $44 $0 +0%
Surf FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 13 $23 +$11 +49%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $30 −$24 -77%
Billions FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 06 $658 +$24 +4%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 04 $10 −$2 -18%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 04 $13 −$1 -6%
Billions FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 04 $974 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 69¢ $345 1h
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 70¢ $25 1h
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 66¢ $253 1h
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 65¢ $59 1h
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 64¢ $161 1h
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 63¢ $6 1h
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 1h
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 95¢ $15 2h
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 91¢ $26 4h
o1 FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL No 100¢ $210 7h
o1 FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL No 100¢ $49 8h
o1 FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 99¢ $248 10h
o1 FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 99¢ $10 10h
GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch? SELL Yes 36¢ $16 26h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? SELL Yes 70¢ $36 45h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? SELL Yes 71¢ $4 45h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? SELL Yes 71¢ $7 45h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? SELL Yes 71¢ $44 45h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? SELL Yes 72¢ $26 45h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? SELL Yes 77¢ $4 45h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? SELL Yes 77¢ $8 45h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? SELL Yes 78¢ $4 45h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 69¢ $32 45h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 69¢ $69 45h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 50¢ $45 45h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 66¢ $27 45h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 63¢ $0 45h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 50¢ $5 45h
GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch? SELL Yes 46¢ $28 46h
Will o1 launch a token by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $165 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $890.71 · official $904.98 · 505 history records