Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:05:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CD 0xcd14…4bb6 other 17 markets active 0h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$521 (+5%) realized +$521 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate82%14W / 3L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$568per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$763
7 days+$446
14 days+$446
30 days+$446
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$335
sports 39% +$914
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -3.1% -12.3% 81% 50% -4.9%
≤30d 16 -3.1% -12.3% 81% 50% -4.9%
≤90d 16 -3.1% -12.3% 81% 50% -4.9%
all 17 +10.2% -0.3% 82% 53% -3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.3% 53% -3.5%
10% -9.8% 29% -12.8%
15% -18.5% 24% -21.2%
20% -26.5% 12% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 33% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$794) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +16% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$94 vs −$244 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.79 per $1 lost it wins $1.79
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$521
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses14 / 3
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage94d
Avg bet$568
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 19 $610 +$31 +5%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $49 +$25 +52%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1,252 +$47 +4%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $1,121 +$172 +15%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 19 $946 +$174 +18%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 18 $794 +$53 +7%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $894 −$2 -0%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $632 +$259 +41%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $628 +$2 +0%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $467 +$159 +34%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $818 +$110 +13%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $233 −$233 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $497 −$497 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $256 +$103 +40%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $209 +$25 +12%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $193 +$16 +8%
Final Stage: USA vs. Venezuela Mar 19 $60 +$133 +223%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 100¢ $641 12m
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 95¢ $190 18m
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 95¢ $190 18m
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 95¢ $230 18m
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? SELL Yes 100¢ $74 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,299 1h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 65¢ $49 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 96¢ $1,045 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 96¢ $206 2h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,293 19h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 87¢ $153 20h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 87¢ $164 20h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 87¢ $715 20h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 87¢ $13 20h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 81¢ $77 20h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score in Second Half SELL No 99¢ $1,120 23h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 88¢ $268 23h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 88¢ $21 23h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 88¢ $49 23h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 88¢ $44 23h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 88¢ $22 23h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 88¢ $27 23h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 80¢ $2 23h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 80¢ $58 23h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 80¢ $34 23h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 75¢ $30 23h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 76¢ $32 23h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 76¢ $15 24h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 76¢ $3 24h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 80¢ $12 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 90 history records