Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:16:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
CD 0xcd18…e517 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$88 (+38%) realized +$136 · open −$48
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +55% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +40% what you keep after slip
Net edge+40%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 138d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% +$43
sports 9% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+40.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 4 +55.0% +40.2% 50% 50% +43.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +40.2% 50% +43.5%
10% +26.8% 50% +29.8%
15% +14.5% 50% +17.2%
20% +3.3% 50% +5.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +55% · $-wt +59% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$21 · ×3.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.21 per $1 lost it wins $3.21
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$136
Unrealized−$48
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)4 / 7
History coverage138d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Yes 12¢ 1¢ $35 $4 −$31 (-89%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $20 $3 −$17 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-02-10? Feb 10 $40 −$40 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-02-10? Feb 10 $20 −$1 -6%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-08? Feb 08 $67 +$70 +104%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-08? Feb 08 $28 +$63 +222%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 12¢ $36 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY 1¢ $20 1h
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-02-10? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 136d
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-02-10? SELL Yes 30¢ $19 136d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-02-10? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 136d
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-02-10? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 136d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-08? SELL Yes 100¢ $137 137d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-08? BUY Yes 49¢ $67 137d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-08? SELL Yes 100¢ $91 138d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-08? BUY Yes 31¢ $28 138d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.83 · official $26.25 · 11 history records