Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:23:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
CD 0xcd18…4280 sports 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialist
Total PnL +$417 (+29%) realized +$413 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt +57% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +36% what you keep after slip
Net edge+36%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%20W / 10L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$204now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days+$375
14 days+$381
30 days+$381
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$354
other 15% +$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+41.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +63.0% +47.5% 68% 68% +26.3%
≤30d 30 +56.7% +41.8% 67% 67% +18.3%
≤90d 30 +56.7% +41.8% 67% 67% +18.3%
all 30 +56.7% +41.8% 67% 67% +18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +41.8% 67% +18.3%
10% +28.2% 63% +7.0%
15% +15.8% 57% -3.3%
20% +4.5% 53% -12.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +57% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +86% → late +28% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$49 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.78 per $1 lost it wins $1.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$204
Realized+$413
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses20 / 10
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions6
Markets (closed)30 / 36
History coverage13d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Pittsburgh Pirates 55¢ 90¢ $25 $41 +$16 (+63%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 73¢ 74¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+2%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Seattle Mariners 56¢ 32¢ $25 $14 −$11 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $25 +$11 +43%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $26 +$25 +97%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $26 +$14 +56%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $26 +$16 +61%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $26 +$22 +86%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 16 $26 −$25 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $26 −$25 -96%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $26 +$91 +351%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $51 +$13 +26%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $52 −$52 -100%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $51 +$74 +144%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $51 +$10 +19%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $154 −$150 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $51 +$15 +30%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $51 +$33 +65%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$45 +437%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 14 $21 −$20 -98%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $105 +$232 +221%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $16 +$14 +86%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $36 +$131 +364%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $103 −$100 -97%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $21 +$22 +108%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $10 +$10 +97%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 07 $51 +$34 +67%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $26 +$25 +97%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $51 −$9 -18%
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $21 +$34 +164%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 04 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $51 59m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 59m
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $26 59m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $25 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 55¢ $26 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 56¢ $26 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $36 23h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $50 23h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 100¢ $40 24h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Toronto Blue Jays 100¢ $41 24h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 100¢ $48 25h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 61¢ $26 26h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 52¢ $26 26h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 62¢ $26 26h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 60¢ $26 26h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 39¢ $51 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $25 26h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $26 26h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $26 26h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 99¢ $117 2d
O/U 2.5 Rounds SELL Under 99¢ $126 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai SELL Mauricio Ruffy 99¢ $60 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 81¢ $51 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $102 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 78¢ $51 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Bo Nickal 99¢ $66 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 99¢ $84 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $26 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 74¢ $51 3d
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 39¢ $51 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $204.30 · official $204.30 (match) · 65 history records