Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:09:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
CD 0xcd1b…bae5 sports 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 223d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$64 (+10%) realized +$57 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +62% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +47% what you keep after slip
Net edge+47%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$46
7 days+$20
14 days+$97
30 days+$97
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$146
other 28% +$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+46.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +44.7% +30.9% 40% 40% -1.5%
≤30d 6 +63.6% +48.0% 50% 50% +22.4%
≤90d 6 +63.6% +48.0% 50% 50% +22.4%
all 7 +62.4% +46.9% 57% 57% +29.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +46.9% 57% +29.8%
10% +32.8% 57% +17.4%
15% +20.0% 57% +6.1%
20% +8.2% 57% -4.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +62% · $-wt +44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$41 · ×2.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.67 per $1 lost it wins $2.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

223d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized+$57
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 11
History coverage223d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 15¢ 26¢ $9 $16 +$7 (+73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $18 +$81 +450%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $85 +$63 +74%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $45 −$45 -99%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $54 −$53 -97%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $49 +$77 +158%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $199 +$109 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY 52¢ $38 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? SELL Yes 99¢ $99 1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 SELL 96¢ $148 1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY 54¢ $85 3h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 18¢ $18 3h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 9h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 9h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 9h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 9h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 9h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 9h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 9h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 9h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 9h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 9h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 9h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 9h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 14¢ $23 9h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY 46¢ $51 9h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 5¢ $54 27h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) AND Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY 16¢ $51 27h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 52¢ $26 7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $126 7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $49 8d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) SELL T1 100¢ $308 222d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY T1 64¢ $100 222d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY T1 65¢ $99 223d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.38 · official $53.38 · 30 history records