Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:25:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
CD 0xcd1c…61d7 other 205 markets active 3d ago coverage 758d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,792 (-4%) realized −$3,601 · open −$191
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate49%98W / 100L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$454per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$343now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$120
14 days−$120
30 days+$439
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$1,721
politics 13% −$1,071
culture 9% −$462
tech 8% +$564
world 8% −$471
crypto 5% −$268
sports 4% −$370
finance 1% +$93
economics 1% −$151
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-26.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -54.4% -58.8% 25% 25% -14.6%
≤30d 13 -23.4% -30.7% 31% 31% +0.0%
≤90d 39 -53.3% -57.8% 26% 18% -15.4%
all 198 -19.2% -26.9% 49% 23% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.9% 23% -13.1%
10% -33.9% 16% -21.4%
15% -40.3% 11% -29.0%
20% -46.1% 9% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -16% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$104 vs −$141 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

758d coverage
Net worth$343
Realized−$3,601
Unrealized−$191
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses98 / 100
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions7
Markets (closed)198 / 205
History coverage758d
Avg bet$454
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 198 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 97¢ $100 $108 +$8 (+8%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 27¢ 12¢ $150 $69 −$81 (-54%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 86¢ 90¢ $55 $58 +$3 (+5%)
Will Israel strike 10 countries in 2026? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $100 $43 −$57 (-57%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $34 $27 −$7 (-22%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 32¢ 12¢ $65 $25 −$40 (-62%)
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027? Yes 27¢ 12¢ $30 $13 −$17 (-56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1,450 +$389 +27%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 14 $28 −$28 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $347 −$347 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $300 −$134 -44%
Iran coup attempt by June 30? May 31 $16 −$9 -56%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $32 +$94 +297%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $54 −$51 -94%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 29 $63 −$63 -100%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 27 $573 +$532 +93%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 22 $29 −$29 -100%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 21 $182 −$77 -42%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 21 $1,062 +$184 +17%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? May 09 $16 +$9 +56%
Will Germany strike Iran by April 30? May 07 $40 −$40 -100%
Will UK strike Iran by April 30? May 07 $16 −$16 -100%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30? May 07 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Jordan strike Iran by April 30? May 07 $26 −$26 -100%
Will France strike Iran by April 30? May 07 $35 −$35 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? May 02 $910 +$5 +1%
Will India join the Board of Peace? Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
US/Israel strike Yemen by March 31? Apr 08 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Belgium join the Board of Peace? Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Brazil join the Board of Peace? Apr 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Sweden join the Board of Peace? Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 08 $410 −$410 -100%
Will the U.K. join the Board of Peace? Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Finland join the Board of Peace? Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will any European country expel an Israeli ambassador by March 31? Apr 08 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Italy join the Board of Peace? Apr 08 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Spain join the Board of Peace? Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 26, 2026? Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 01 $46 +$2 +5%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 01 $1,555 +$117 +8%
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Arizona Wildcats Mar 30 $3 +$1 +40%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 26 $500 $0 +0%
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 25 $298 −$298 -100%
Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch? Mar 25 $168 −$168 -100%
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 25 $435 +$65 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Mar 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Mar 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Mar 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Mar 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Mar 11 $10 +$100 +948%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Mar 11 $72 −$72 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 Mar 11 $81 +$36 +45%
Nothing Ever Happens: Elon Edition Mar 08 $60 −$51 -86%
Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in February 2026? Mar 01 $2,044 +$410 +20%
Flying Tulip FDV above $800M one day after launch? Feb 24 $150 −$150 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 17 $1,000 +$150 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 27¢ $150 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 89¢ $1,079 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $1,000 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $100 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 72¢ $502 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $150 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $258 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $300 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 46¢ $166 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $300 7d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? BUY No 29¢ $220 17d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? BUY No 29¢ $127 17d
Iran coup attempt by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $7 18d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 64¢ $63 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 18d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 64¢ $63 18d
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven BUY Usyk 37¢ $1 25d
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven SELL Rico 75¢ $906 25d
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven BUY Rico 43¢ $305 25d
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven BUY Rico 24¢ $102 25d
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven SELL Rico 16¢ $195 25d
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven BUY Rico 14¢ $62 25d
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven BUY Rico 11¢ $103 25d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $105 28d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 86¢ $1,246 28d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $182 37d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 69¢ $167 42d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 69¢ $3 42d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 69¢ $4 42d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 69¢ $20 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $343.31 · official $344.97 (match) · 945 history records