Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:46:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CD 0xcd1e…6983 crypto 1800 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$101 (-1%) realized −$938 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate87%1701W / 247L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day143.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$890
7 days−$970
14 days−$938
30 days−$938
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$34
sports 2% +$46
other 2% −$95
weather 0% −$19
world 0% +$7
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1286 -11.5% -19.9% 83% 1% -27.3%
≤30d 1948 -7.0% -15.8% 87% 1% -19.0%
≤90d 1948 -7.0% -15.8% 87% 1% -19.0%
all 1948 -7.0% -15.8% 87% 1% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover143.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.8% 1% -19.0%
10% ← realistic here -23.9% 1% -26.7%
15% -31.2% 1% -33.8%
20% -38.0% 1% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$6 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$938
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses1701 / 247
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions7
Markets (closed)1948 / 1800
History coverage13d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day143.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 1948 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Over 49¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Yes 34¢ 52¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+51%)
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Flavio Cobolli 70¢ 50¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-29%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Boston Red Sox 45¢ 48¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 71¢ 48¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-33%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 38¢ 24¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-38%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Down 96¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 29, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Up 97¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43m? Yes 15¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-96%)
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Up 95¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Up 95¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Down 95¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Down 96¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Down 92¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Down 75¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Up 95¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Flavio Cobolli 20¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Down 96¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 11? Up 36¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1PM ET Down 70¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 29, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 11? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$4 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 4PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 20? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 5PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 20? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 29, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 29, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -85%
Roland Garros ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Alexander Zverev Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 19, 3PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 19, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 20? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 1AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 20, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on May 8? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -105%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 31? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-09? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Jil Teichmann Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $4 3m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $4 7m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $4 13m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $4 23m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $4 27m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $4 33m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $4 38m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $4 42m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $4 47m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $4 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $4 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $4 2h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $10 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $4 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $4 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $4 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $4 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $4 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $4 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $4 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.69 · official $46.07 · 3500 history records