Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:45:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
CD 0xcd1f…f0d8 crypto 637 markets active 1h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$14,771 (-7%) realized −$14,772 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate67%425W / 211L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$345per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$201est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$855
7 days−$355
14 days−$1,447
30 days−$797
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$13,958
other 9% −$138
sports 9% −$2,131
world 0% +$27
economics 0% −$540
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -6.6% -15.5% 59% 54% -15.7%
≤30d 132 -7.8% -16.6% 58% 55% -12.5%
≤90d 276 -10.7% -19.2% 61% 52% -19.2%
all 636 -6.8% -15.7% 67% 45% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 45% -15.4%
10% -23.8% 28% -23.5%
15% -31.1% 15% -30.9%
20% -37.9% 8% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$76 vs −$232 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$14,772
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses425 / 211
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$201
Open positions1
Markets (closed)636 / 637
History coverage143d
Avg bet$345
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 636 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Yes 44¢ 44¢ $62 $63 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 74 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $200 −$37 -19%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $85 −$84 -99%
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? Jun 17 $224 +$61 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $272 −$120 -44%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $223 −$223 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $199 −$197 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $148 +$51 +34%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $128 +$21 +16%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $102 +$26 +26%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $107 −$5 -5%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $199 −$197 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $297 +$8 +3%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $114 −$112 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $101 +$112 +112%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $60 −$59 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $201 +$52 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $102 +$109 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $103 −$30 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $99 −$69 -70%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $99 −$98 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $118 +$81 +68%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $132 +$86 +66%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $168 +$64 +38%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $211 +$55 +26%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $89 +$27 +30%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $53 +$32 +60%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $43 +$10 +25%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $128 +$14 +11%
Mexico to score first vs. South Africa? Jun 11 $94 +$34 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 11 $89 +$4 +5%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $151 +$138 +91%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $150 +$30 +20%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $245 +$56 +23%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $101 −$100 -99%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $145 +$103 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 10 $55 −$10 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 10 $103 −$51 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 10 $104 −$13 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 10 $104 +$109 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 10 $132 −$130 -99%
Azerbaijan vs. San Marino: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $132 +$109 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 09 $122 −$119 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 09 $74 −$50 -67%
Peru vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $330 −$327 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 08 $49 −$17 -35%
Will Niger vs. Mauritania end in a draw? Jun 08 $152 −$150 -99%
France vs. Northern Ireland: Draw at halftime? Jun 08 $130 −$127 -98%
Croatia vs. Slovenia: Draw at halftime? Jun 07 $149 +$81 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 44¢ $63 43m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 63¢ $162 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 76¢ $200 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 62¢ $85 2h
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? SELL Yes 100¢ $285 2h
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? BUY Yes 78¢ $224 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $104 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $104 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $66 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $48 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $206 11h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $223 13h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $199 14h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $148 19h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 SELL Under 99¢ $148 19h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 BUY Under 85¢ $128 20h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $128 20h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 78¢ $102 20h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 48¢ $101 20h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 65¢ $199 21h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $107 21h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 62¢ $305 22h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $297 22h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 38¢ $114 23h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $213 46h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $101 47h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 40¢ $60 47h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 99¢ $253 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 78¢ $201 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $211 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.70 · official $62.70 (match) · 1436 history records