Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:53:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcd26…e287 other 148 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$38 (-0%) realized −$38 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate6%8W / 137L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$254per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$18
politics 34% −$17
sports 11% −$4
tech 4% −$2
crypto 2% −$1
world 2% −$1
economics 2% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 17 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 103 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 145 -1.5% -10.9% 6% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 3% -9.6%
10% -19.4% 3% -18.3%
15% -27.2% 2% -26.2%
20% -34.3% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×9.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses8 / 137
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)145 / 148
History coverage134d
Avg bet$254
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 145 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+0%)
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $35 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $38 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $273 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $26 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $250 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $284 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $39 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $23 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $35 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $254 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $35 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $38 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $636 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $733 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $635 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $411 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $189 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? May 25 $179 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $361 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $624 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $215 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $179 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $449 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $248 $0 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 21 $210 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 20 $418 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $195 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $395 −$1 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $654 −$1 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $449 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $671 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $215 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 13 $209 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 11 $191 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $246 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 09 $211 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $181 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 07 $598 −$1 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $254 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $195 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $231 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 04 $212 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $461 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $224 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $250 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $432 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $519 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 01 $248 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 30 $236 $0 -0%
Will Alex Michelsen win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 30 $244 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? BUY No 100¢ $25 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $35 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $41 1h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $35 1h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 17h
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 24h
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 28h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $21 3d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $21 3d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 3d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 4d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $37 4d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $37 5d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $42 9d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $42 9d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $39 9d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $39 9d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $23 9d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $23 19d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $35 22d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 23d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $42 23d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $42 24d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $35 24d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 24d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $38 24d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $38 24d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $187 25d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $187 27d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $241 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.97 · official $100.97 (match) · 447 history records