Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:23:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
CD 0xcd28…0209 other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+1%) realized +$7 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% +$13
sports 4% −$10
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -1.4% -10.8% 60% 60% -4.5%
≤30d 9 -12.3% -20.7% 56% 56% -4.8%
≤90d 9 -12.3% -20.7% 56% 56% -4.8%
all 9 -12.3% -20.7% 56% 56% -4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.7% 56% -4.8%
10% -28.3% 44% -13.9%
15% -35.2% 44% -22.2%
20% -41.5% 22% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$10 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$95
Realized+$7
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)9 / 14
History coverage10d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $80 $80 +$1 (+1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+15%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-45%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$14 +134%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$8 +38%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +21%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +55%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$21 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $81 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 72¢ $20 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 5d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 59¢ $10 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 21¢ $5 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 8d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 8d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 10d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 10d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 10d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $95.48 · official $95.48 (match) · 28 history records