Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:16:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcd28…d325 crypto 89 markets active 0h ago coverage 60d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 59d only
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,712 (-10%) realized −$1,712 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate47%42W / 47L
Whale WR10%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$187per market
Trades / day53.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$984
politics 1% −$6
finance 0% −$22
sports 0% −$3
weather 0% −$4
other 0% −$3
world 0% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +1.9% -7.8% 97% 3% -7.5%
≤30d 56 -4.6% -13.7% 59% 5% -16.5%
≤90d 89 -7.8% -16.6% 47% 10% -15.1%
all 89 -7.8% -16.6% 47% 10% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover53.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.6% 10% -15.1%
10% ← realistic here -24.6% 6% -23.2%
15% -31.9% 4% -30.6%
20% -38.6% 4% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 88% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 10% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -14% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
28.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$33 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,712
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses42 / 47
Whale WR (big bets)10%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)89 / 89
History coverage60d ⚠
Avg bet$187
Trades / day53.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 89 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -15%
Ethereum flipped in 2026? Jun 01 $5 $0 -6%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $4 $0 -3%
Will the Republicans win the Vermont governor race in 2026? Jun 01 $18 −$1 -7%
Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 01 $4 −$2 -54%
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends? Jun 01 $1 $0 -18%
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? Jun 01 $3 $0 -8%
Will Juliana Brizola win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election? Jun 01 $25 −$1 -4%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $10 $0 -3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 01 $70 −$21 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 1? Jun 01 $36 −$4 -10%
Will Quantinuum's market cap be at least $25B at market close on IPO d Jun 01 $1 $0 -0%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 01 $18 −$1 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 01 $8 −$1 -12%
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 01 $22 $0 -2%
Will Luciano Zucco win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election? May 31 $18 −$2 -11%
The Polymarket Open: Big John vs. Cheddy May 31 $26 −$1 -5%
Will Deep Fission's market cap be between $1.5B and $1.75B at market c May 31 $9 $0 -5%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? May 31 $21 −$1 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records