Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:41:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
CD 0xcd28…cecf crypto 84 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,898 (+3%) realized +$1,782 · open +$1,116
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%43W / 39L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$1,110per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$2,282now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 24d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$9,936
other 3% −$519
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +29.4% +17.1% 58% 58% +14.8%
≤30d 82 +5.0% -5.0% 52% 52% -1.4%
≤90d 82 +5.0% -5.0% 52% 52% -1.4%
all 82 +5.0% -5.0% 52% 52% -1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.0% 52% -1.4%
10% ← realistic here -14.1% 49% -10.8%
15% -22.4% 46% -19.4%
20% -30.0% 43% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$1,496) neutral
Persistence
early -5% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,157 vs −$1,062 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$2,282
Realized+$1,782
Unrealized+$1,116
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses43 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)82 / 84
History coverage24d
Avg bet$1,110
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Up 41¢ 86¢ $1,000 $2,126 +$1,126 (+113%)
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $166 $157 −$9 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 26 $3,465 +$5,567 +161%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 26 $1,719 −$1,719 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 26 $4,005 −$4,005 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 26 $3,278 +$2,446 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 26 $5,172 −$5,172 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 26 $5,178 +$3,712 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 26 $1,052 +$2,027 +193%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 26 $2,086 +$2,343 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 26 $3,071 +$2,279 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 26 $3,122 +$3,023 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 26 $3,110 −$3,110 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 26 $1,025 +$389 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 26 $523 −$523 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 26 $1,380 +$1,128 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 26 $1,037 −$1,037 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 26 $3,584 +$3,510 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 26 $1,535 −$1,535 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 26 $519 +$424 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 26 $1,740 +$1,418 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 26 $1,038 +$866 +83%
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 26 $643 −$643 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 26 $530 −$530 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 26 $2,065 +$4,179 +202%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 3 France? Jun 26 $642 −$642 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 26 $1,287 +$776 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 26 $1 +$2 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 26 $2,572 −$2,572 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 26 $644 −$644 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 26 $1,040 −$1,040 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 26 $790 +$2,168 +274%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 26 $1,368 +$3,111 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 26 $1,392 +$1,216 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 26 $1,164 +$1,020 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 26 $2,017 −$232 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 26 $1,382 −$1,382 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 26 $937 +$967 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 06 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 06 $597 −$597 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 06 $1,949 −$1,949 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 06 $238 −$238 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 06 $702 −$463 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 06 $495 +$72 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 06 $669 −$669 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 06 $601 −$601 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 06 $991 +$715 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 06 $891 −$891 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 06 $889 +$530 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 06 $1,274 +$1,789 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 06 $1,284 +$1,150 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 06 $651 +$640 +98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1,047 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $520 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $602 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $315 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $388 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $913 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $727 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $85 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $297 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $355 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $197 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $383 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $402 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $596 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $401 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $52 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1,019 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1,936 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $35 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $694 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $350 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $292 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $570 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $488 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $319 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $530 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $678 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $763 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $694 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $677 52m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,282.42 · official $2,282.42 (match) · 309 history records