Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:32:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
CD 0xcd2a…56ac other 65 markets active 2h ago coverage 469d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate44%28W / 36L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% +$2
world 34% +$4
politics 12% $0
crypto 5% $0
economics 4% $0
finance 2% −$2
culture 1% $0
tech 1% $0
sports 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 13 +4.2% -5.7% 54% 23% -9.0%
≤90d 13 +4.2% -5.7% 54% 23% -9.0%
all 64 +0.6% -9.0% 44% 5% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 5% -9.1%
10% -17.7% 2% -17.8%
15% -25.6% 0% -25.7%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.29 per $1 lost it wins $2.29
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

469d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses28 / 36
Open positions1
Markets (closed)64 / 65
History coverage469d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $46 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $4 +$1 +17%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $17 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 06 $44 +$1 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $7 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $21 −$1 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $47 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 05 $49 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 05 $87 +$1 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $18 −$2 -10%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $48 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $2 +$1 +30%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $8 +$1 +16%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jul 10 $2 $0 -2%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jul 10 $13 $0 -0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 10 $25 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Jul 10 $12 $0 -0%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 1% and 0%? Jul 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 09 $8 $0 +0%
Will Nuno Mendes win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 09 $8 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 4–11? Jul 09 $5 $0 +1%
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 09 $19 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Jul 08 $13 $0 +4%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 08 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 08 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jul 08 $13 $0 -0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 07 $11 $0 -1%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 07 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will GPT-5 be released by December 31? Jul 07 $1 $0 -3%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 07 $1 $0 -6%
Wimbledon: Sinner vs. Dimitrov Jul 07 $2 −$1 -32%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 07 $1 $0 -5%
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 06 $14 $0 +1%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 06 $13 $0 -0%
Will Remco Evenepoel win the Tour de France 2025? Jul 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? Jun 26 $12 +$1 +4%
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland? Jun 03 $2 $0 +6%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? May 18 $13 $0 +2%
Will Solana dip to $110 in May? May 18 $12 $0 +1%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? May 17 $12 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? May 15 $12 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? May 14 $13 $0 -0%
Will Sweden finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 13 $13 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $50 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $40 9h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $6 9h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $15 12h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $20 12h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $11 12h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 15d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 38¢ $17 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 38¢ $17 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $31 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $14 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 67¢ $44 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 28¢ $7 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 28¢ $7 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $9 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $11 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $21 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $28 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $17 17d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $45 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $2 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $48 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $49 17d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 46¢ $35 18d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 46¢ $9 18d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $43 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 18d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 18d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $4 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.34 · official $50.34 (match) · 207 history records