Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:49:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score

CD 0xcd2c…97c2 crypto 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 102d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$75 (+9%) realized +$60 · open +$15

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip

Net edge+19%after slip

Net WR27%break-even

Win rate27%6W / 16L

Drawdown73%max

Avg bet$36per market

Trades / day0.4pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit88%portable

Net worth$260now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$109

7 days−$129

14 days−$21

30 days+$46

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +27%

net ROI/market (all)+19.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	-64.5%	-67.9%	0%	0%	-39.6%
≤30d	6	+113.5%	+93.2%	33%	33%	-0.5%
≤90d	6	+113.5%	+93.2%	33%	33%	-0.5%
all	22	+32.0%	+19.4%	27%	27%	+0.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+19.4%	27%	+0.7%
10%	+8.0%	18%	-8.9%
15%	-2.4%	14%	-17.7%
20%	-12.0%	14%	-25.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 54% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +10% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +32% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -78% → late +142% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$41 vs −$12 · ×3.46 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.3 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage

Net worth$260

Realized+$60

Unrealized+$15

Win rate (resolved)27%

Wins / losses6 / 16

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions2

Markets (closed)22 / 24

History coverage102d

Avg bet$36

Trades / day0.4

Drawdown73%

Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 22 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	10¢	12¢	$120	$137	+$17 (+14%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	4¢	4¢	$125	$123	−$2 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	Jun 19	$71	−$53	-75%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 19	$298	−$56	-19%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 14	$21	−$20	-98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$26	−$25	-97%
Spurs vs. Knicks	Jun 11	$21	+$133	+650%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 04	$20	+$66	+325%
Final Stage: Italy vs. Venezuela	Mar 16	$9	−$9	-100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 10?	Mar 10	$3	−$3	-100%
Solana Up or Down - March 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Mar 10	$1	−$1	-100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 9?	Mar 10	$4	+$46	+1150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Mar 09	$1	$0	+34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Mar 09	$2	−$2	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Mar 09	$1	$0	+21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Mar 09	$12	−$12	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Mar 09	$2	−$2	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Mar 09	$1	−$1	-99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Mar 09	$1	−$1	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Mar 09	$2	−$2	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Mar 09	$1	−$1	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Mar 09	$2	$0	+17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Mar 09	$1	−$1	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Mar 09	$1	−$1	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	4¢	$129	1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	SELL Yes	9¢	$18	26h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	BUY Yes	34¢	$71	28h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	8¢	$89	28h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$123	3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$123	3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	4¢	$99	3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	10¢	$105	3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$120	5d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Spurs	13¢	$21	6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$123	7d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	11¢	$48	7d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$51	8d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	11¢	$26	8d
Spurs vs. Knicks	BUY Knicks	13¢	$21	9d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Knicks	23¢	$20	16d
Final Stage: Italy vs. Venezuela	BUY Italy	37¢	$9	95d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 10?	BUY Down	0¢	$1	101d
Solana Up or Down - March 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	BUY Up	0¢	$1	101d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 10?	BUY Down	5¢	$2	101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	BUY Down	1¢	$2	102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	BUY Up	0¢	$1	102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$1	102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$1	102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	BUY Up	2¢	$1	102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	BUY Up	2¢	$1	102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	BUY Up	2¢	$1	102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	BUY Up	3¢	$1	102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	BUY Up	3¢	$1	102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	BUY Up	4¢	$1	102d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $260.33 · official $260.33 (match) · 67 history records