Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:23:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

CD 0xcd2d…904c other 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover

✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL +$2,216 (+5%) realized +$2,389 · open −$173

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip

Net edge-14%after slip

Net WR45%break-even

Win rate58%18W / 13L

Whale WR88%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$1,199per market

Trades / day13.4pace

Fees−$190est.

Kalshi-fit26%portable

Net worth$5,927now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +45%

net ROI/market (all)-2.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	31	+7.9%	-2.3%	58%	45%	-4.8%
≤30d	31	+7.9%	-2.3%	58%	45%	-4.8%
≤90d	31	+7.9%	-2.3%	58%	45%	-4.8%
all	31	+7.9%	-2.3%	58%	45%	-4.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover13.4 tr/day

realistic slip~11%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-2.3%	45%	-4.8%
10% ← realistic here	-11.7%	39%	-13.9%
15%	-20.2%	32%	-22.2%
20%	-28.0%	19%	-29.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

17% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +8% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 88% (≥$2,019) strong on big bets

Persistence

early -5% → late +20% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$519 vs −$576 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.25 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$5,927

Realized+$2,389

Unrealized−$173

Win rate (resolved)58%

Wins / losses18 / 13

Whale WR (big bets)88%

Est. fees paid−$190

Open positions4

Markets (closed)31 / 35

History coverage4d

Avg bet$1,199

Trades / day13.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit26%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 31 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	65¢	66¢	$2,000	$2,046	+$46 (+2%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	68¢	68¢	$2,000	$1,985	−$15 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	68¢	60¢	$2,000	$1,750	−$250 (-12%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	3¢	$100	$146	+$46 (+46%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$2,026	+$1,545	+76%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$2,023	+$1,255	+62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$1,016	+$1,068	+105%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$2,021	+$1,056	+52%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	Jun 18	$5,075	−$5,000	-98%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa?	Jun 18	$51	+$245	+479%
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Jun 18	$2,507	+$255	+10%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$1,014	−$683	-67%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa?	Jun 18	$51	−$29	-56%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa?	Jun 18	$51	−$26	-51%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa?	Jun 18	$51	−$50	-98%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa?	Jun 18	$51	−$50	-97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$504	+$181	+36%
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Jun 18	$2,301	+$31	+1%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$72	−$17	-24%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama?	Jun 18	$205	+$8	+4%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama?	Jun 18	$205	+$33	+16%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama?	Jun 17	$205	+$16	+8%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score in First Half	Jun 17	$102	−$100	-98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$1,006	+$260	+26%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	Jun 17	$205	−$24	-12%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$123	−$94	-76%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Jun 17	$1,012	+$628	+62%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$5,524	+$506	+9%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	Jun 17	$1,015	−$797	-78%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$2,019	+$922	+46%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?	Jun 17	$819	−$337	-41%
Norway to score first vs. Iraq?	Jun 17	$2,011	+$458	+23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$1,024	+$457	+45%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5	Jun 16	$1,009	+$417	+41%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	Jun 16	$510	−$280	-55%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$2,019	1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	65¢	$2,021	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	68¢	$2,019	1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	56¢	$2,026	46h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$2,023	46h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	48¢	$1,016	46h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	BUY Yes	50¢	$5,075	47h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	65¢	$2,021	2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	18¢	$331	2d
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa?	SELL Yes	7¢	$23	2d
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa?	SELL Yes	5¢	$25	2d
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa?	BUY Yes	15¢	$51	2d
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa?	BUY Yes	17¢	$51	2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY No	91¢	$2,507	2d
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa?	BUY Yes	9¢	$51	2d
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa?	BUY Yes	17¢	$51	2d
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa?	BUY Yes	12¢	$51	2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	53¢	$1,014	2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	8¢	$54	2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	10¢	$72	2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	73¢	$504	2d
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama?	SELL Yes	6¢	$10	2d
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama?	SELL Yes	15¢	$36	2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$103	2d
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama?	SELL Yes	27¢	$211	2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY No	99¢	$2,301	2d
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama?	SELL Yes	15¢	$203	2d
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama?	SELL Yes	16¢	$203	2d
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama?	BUY Yes	13¢	$205	2d
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama?	BUY Yes	13¢	$205	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,927.10 · official $5,927.10 (match) · 72 history records