Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:28:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcd30…a9a4 sports 242 markets active 2h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$608 (-9%) realized −$608 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate61%147W / 95L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day11.6pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$76
7 days−$480
14 days−$450
30 days−$777
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$427
other 24% −$222
crypto 8% −$138
culture 1% +$10
politics 1% +$5
finance 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -27.5% -34.4% 42% 11% -56.7%
≤30d 208 -2.8% -12.0% 62% 47% -21.2%
≤90d 242 -5.4% -14.4% 61% 47% -19.4%
all 242 -5.4% -14.4% 61% 47% -19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 47% -19.4%
10% -22.6% 35% -27.2%
15% -30.1% 25% -34.2%
20% -36.9% 19% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$21 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$608
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses147 / 95
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions0
Markets (closed)242 / 242
History coverage34d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day11.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 242 Trades
no open positions (57 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $116 −$43 -38%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $72 −$71 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $77 +$39 +50%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $229 −$227 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $108 −$107 -99%
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 12 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 12 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 12 $35 +$3 +8%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 12 $30 +$1 +2%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 12 $20 −$1 -3%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $20 −$1 -3%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $20 $0 -1%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 $0 -7%
Bratislava: Zsombor Piros vs Joao Lucas Da Silva Jun 11 $20 $0 +2%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Greet Minnen Jun 11 $30 +$16 +52%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 11 $20 −$20 -99%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 11 $20 −$20 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $20 +$15 +76%
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 10 $4 +$1 +42%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $20 +$13 +62%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $20 $0 -1%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $20 −$20 -99%
Libema Open: Martin Damm vs Alex de Minaur Jun 10 $20 +$2 +12%
Ilkley: Emerson Jones vs Dalma Galfi Jun 10 $40 +$19 +47%
Libema Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 10 $20 +$6 +31%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 10 $20 −$20 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $30 +$7 +23%
Indonesia vs. Mozambique: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $20 +$6 +27%
Libema Open: Greet Minnen vs Janice Tjen Jun 09 $20 +$2 +12%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 09 $20 −$20 -99%
Birmingham: Nikola Bartunkova vs Ashlyn Krueger Jun 06 $20 +$3 +16%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 05 $20 +$1 +6%
Centurion 2: Giles Hussey vs Philip Henning Jun 05 $20 +$13 +66%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 02 $21 −$21 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 02 $41 +$27 +67%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $29 +$3 +12%
Colombia vs. Costa Rica: O/U 0.5 Jun 02 $24 +$1 +3%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 02 $30 +$38 +126%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 02 $3 $0 -11%
Austria vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 02 $15 +$5 +32%
Will Austria vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 01 $5 −$2 -50%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $20 −$13 -63%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $30 $0 -1%
Roland Garros ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Jesper de Jong May 29 $20 −$20 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $20 −$20 -99%
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC: O/U 1.5 May 29 $13 $0 +2%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $30 +$20 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 25¢ $0 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $72 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 26¢ $72 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $116 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $77 30h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $229 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $7 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $101 2d
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 44¢ $51 2d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 49¢ $10 5d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 87¢ $21 5d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 87¢ $21 5d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 96¢ $38 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? SELL No 91¢ $31 5d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 51¢ $20 5d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 53¢ $20 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 80¢ $20 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 46¢ $5 5d
Bratislava: Zsombor Piros vs Joao Lucas Da Silva BUY Zsombor Piros 98¢ $20 6d
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska BUY Dayana Yastremska 60¢ $20 6d
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Tallon Griekspoor 67¢ $20 6d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 51¢ $20 6d
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Greet Minnen BUY Robin Montgomery 68¢ $10 6d
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Greet Minnen BUY Robin Montgomery 64¢ $20 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 48¢ $5 6d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 62¢ $20 7d
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? BUY No 70¢ $4 7d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 7d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 61¢ $20 7d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 56¢ $20 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 538 history records