Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T23:45:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
CD 0xcd30…d95d crypto 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 186d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$90 (-19%) realized −$90 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate62%13W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$15
14 days−$15
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$33
other 16% −$76
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-40.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -4.1% -13.2% 92% 0% -12.4%
≤30d 13 -4.1% -13.2% 92% 0% -12.4%
≤90d 13 -4.1% -13.2% 92% 0% -12.4%
all 21 -34.4% -40.6% 62% 5% -30.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.6% 5% -30.3%
10% -46.3% 0% -37.0%
15% -51.5% 0% -43.1%
20% -56.2% 0% -48.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -66% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$16 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

186d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$90
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses13 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage186d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 27 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 27 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 27 $30 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 27 $30 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 27 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 27 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 27 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 27 $30 −$29 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 27 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 27 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 27 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 27 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 27 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Feb 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Feb 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Feb 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Feb 15 $5 +$1 +16%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 2 hours and 2 hours Jan 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 45 minute Jan 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 15 minute Jan 25 $2 −$2 -87%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 Dec 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $31 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $30 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $31 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $30 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $32 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $30 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $30 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $30 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $30 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $32 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $32 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $8 132d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 132d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 132d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 132d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 132d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.58 · official $31.58 (match) · 40 history records