Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:25:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CD 0xcd33…cf51 crypto 877 markets active 1h ago coverage 114d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 113d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$12,604 (-8%) realized −$12,082 · open −$522
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate88%765W / 109L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$190per market
Trades / day17.3pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$4,022now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 55% −$5,977
politics 24% −$212
world 14% −$377
other 5% +$130
sports 1% +$687
finance 0% −$2
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 -33.7% -40.0% 52% 14% -12.7%
≤30d 88 -27.7% -34.5% 53% 12% -11.4%
≤90d 612 -1.6% -11.0% 86% 41% -12.4%
all 874 -1.0% -10.5% 88% 39% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 39% -12.4%
10% -19.0% 8% -20.8%
15% -26.8% 2% -28.5%
20% -34.0% 1% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$109 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$4,022
Realized−$12,082
Unrealized−$522
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses765 / 109
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions3
Markets (closed)874 / 877
History coverage114d ⚠
Avg bet$190
Trades / day17.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 874 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? Yes 79¢ 100¢ $2,394 $3,016 +$622 (+26%)
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? Yes 54¢ 100¢ $477 $884 +$407 (+85%)
Will Paloma Valencia win less than 10% of votes in the first round of the 2026 Colombian election? Yes 100¢ 99¢ $119 $118 −$0 (-0%)
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? No 50¢ 0¢ $400 $3 −$397 (-99%)
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? No 50¢ 0¢ $125 $1 −$124 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 18 $1,233 +$5 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $6,538 +$386 +6%
Will Pizza Hut be acquired before 2027? Jun 17 $288 +$2 +1%
Will Trump praise Dana White by June 30? Jun 17 $253 +$13 +5%
Will Marco Rubio attend the G7 Summit? Jun 16 $95 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $5,220 −$453 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $104 +$23 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $105 −$105 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $101 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $504 −$490 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $105 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $303 +$13 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $204 +$40 +19%
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Pri Jun 16 $693 −$248 -36%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $477 +$35 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $95 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +31%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,990 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$20 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $603 +$61 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $104 +$146 +140%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $44 −$44 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $71 −$71 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $109 −$109 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $114 −$114 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 23, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $94 −$94 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $223 −$223 -100%
Will Claude Mythos not be released by June 30? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? SELL No 1¢ $6 35m
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $286 50m
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $998 51m
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $42 51m
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $421 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? BUY Yes 98¢ $44 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $48 1h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 100¢ $150 1h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 100¢ $87 1h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 100¢ $996 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $113 1h
Will Pizza Hut be acquired before 2027? BUY Yes 99¢ $288 17h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $3,589 36h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $2,000 37h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $2,000 37h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $1,177 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $127 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $104 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $105 38h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $101 38h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $101 38h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 38h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $132 39h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1,000 39h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $88 39h
Will Trump praise Dana White by June 30? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 39h
Will Paloma Valencia win less than 10% of votes in the first round of BUY Yes 100¢ $119 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,021.90 · official $4,019.12 (match) · 3500 history records