Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:15:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CD 0xcd37…5ce9 world 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 151d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized +$119 · open −$125
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate62%10W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$141per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$2,720now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days+$204
14 days+$204
30 days+$283
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% −$185
other 33% +$85
sports 17% +$144
economics 5% −$38
politics 4% −$33
crypto 2% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +100.2% +81.1% 100% 100% +81.2%
≤30d 8 +21.4% +9.9% 75% 62% +21.1%
≤90d 12 +5.3% -4.8% 67% 58% +7.9%
all 16 -5.5% -14.5% 62% 56% -1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 56% -1.9%
10% -22.7% 44% -11.3%
15% -30.2% 25% -19.8%
20% -37.0% 25% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late +21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$70 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$2,720
Realized+$119
Unrealized−$125
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses10 / 6
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions16
Markets (closed)16 / 32
History coverage151d
Avg bet$141
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 85¢ 90¢ $900 $958 +$58 (+6%)
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? No 88¢ 94¢ $400 $427 +$27 (+7%)
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? No 86¢ 82¢ $200 $190 −$10 (-5%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 82¢ 94¢ $100 $115 +$15 (+15%)
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? Yes 25¢ 14¢ $200 $108 −$92 (-46%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 98¢ $100 $106 +$6 (+6%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 87¢ 40¢ $200 $93 −$107 (-53%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 86¢ 92¢ $70 $75 +$5 (+7%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 60¢ 57¢ $75 $72 −$3 (-4%)
Will Steve Bannon be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? No 71¢ 98¢ $50 $69 +$19 (+38%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 65¢ 40¢ $100 $62 −$38 (-38%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 78¢ 78¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 18 $102 +$27 +26%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $102 +$177 +174%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 01 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the Jun 01 $30 +$2 +6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $200 +$37 +18%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $100 +$64 +64%
Valencia vs. Real Madrid May 25 $152 +$127 +83%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 25 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $50 +$30 +61%
Starmer out by February 28, 2026? Mar 25 $100 +$31 +31%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 30, 2026? Mar 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Mar 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 21 $90 −$90 -100%
Will Richard Branson be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Feb 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 16 $110 +$16 +15%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 16 $100 +$33 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 72¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $102 16h
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $200 5d
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? BUY No 84¢ $200 9d
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? BUY No 86¢ $200 9d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 87¢ $200 9d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 36¢ $102 17d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY No 44¢ $51 17d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 85¢ $905 17d
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the SELL Yes 89¢ $32 17d
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? BUY Yes 25¢ $200 24d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 65¢ $102 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 84¢ $200 24d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $100 24d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 44¢ $102 24d
Valencia vs. Real Madrid BUY Real Madrid 54¢ $152 27d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 85¢ $173 27d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $70 30d
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the BUY Yes 84¢ $30 85d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 62¢ $50 85d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 78¢ $50 85d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 83¢ $73 105d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $90 117d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $100 117d
Will Richard Branson be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? BUY No 73¢ $50 123d
Will Steve Bannon be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? BUY No 71¢ $50 123d
Starmer out by February 28, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $100 130d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,719.91 · official $2,723.50 (match) · 50 history records