Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:23:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcd3a…6e2c sports 151 markets active 1h ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%17W / 133L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 27% −$3
politics 23% −$4
other 23% −$5
crypto 8% $0
culture 6% −$1
economics 5% −$1
tech 4% −$1
world 3% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -1.0% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 3 -1.1% -10.5% 0% 0% -10.3%
all 150 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses17 / 133
Open positions1
Markets (closed)150 / 151
History coverage160d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 150 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $45 −$1 -2%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $93 $0 -0%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 18 $39 $0 -1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 19 $199 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Mar 18 $40 $0 -1%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 18 $99 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 18 $51 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 17 $108 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 17 $130 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? Mar 17 $48 $0 -0%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 16 $46 $0 -1%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 16 $101 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 16 $89 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 15 $372 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 15 $46 $0 +0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 14 $160 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 13 $40 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 12 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 12 $46 $0 +1%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 12 $43 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 12 $162 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 11 $162 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 10 $41 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 10 $56 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 10 $82 $0 -0%
Will Jason Day win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 10 $53 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 09 $94 $0 -0%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? Mar 09 $43 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 08 $162 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 08 $208 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 08 $50 $0 +0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 07 $130 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Mar 06 $127 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 06 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in March? Mar 05 $48 $0 +1%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 05 $157 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 04 $43 $0 +0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Mar 04 $98 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 03 $91 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Mar 03 $93 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 28 $100 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 27 $123 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Feb 27 $55 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 27 $98 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 27 $134 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 25 $160 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Feb 25 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 25 $108 $0 -0%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 23 $8 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $7 54m
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $33 1h
Will Norway score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $44 10d
Will Norway score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $45 10d
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $49 23d
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $49 23d
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 96¢ $39 31d
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 97¢ $39 31d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $51 91d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $51 91d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? SELL No 96¢ $39 91d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? BUY No 97¢ $40 92d
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 97¢ $48 92d
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 97¢ $48 92d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $51 92d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $51 92d
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $53 92d
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $53 93d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 95¢ $39 93d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 95¢ $39 93d
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 96¢ $48 93d
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 96¢ $48 93d
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 97¢ $46 93d
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 98¢ $46 94d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $44 94d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $44 94d
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 95¢ $40 94d
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 95¢ $40 94d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $49 94d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $49 95d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.55 · official $39.55 (match) · 547 history records