Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:47:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CD 0xcd3a…d194 crypto 724 markets active 1h ago coverage 129d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 128d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,675 (-40%) realized −$2,675 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate52%376W / 348L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day22.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 129d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$271
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 392 +0.6% -9.0% 63% 61% -9.2%
≤30d 425 -1.3% -10.7% 61% 59% -10.2%
≤90d 431 -1.7% -11.1% 61% 59% -10.8%
all 724 -6.2% -15.1% 52% 49% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.1% 49% -13.2%
10% ← realistic here -23.2% 41% -21.5%
15% -30.7% 34% -29.1%
20% -37.5% 24% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$2,675
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses376 / 348
Open positions0
Markets (closed)724 / 724
History coverage129d ⚠
Avg bet$9
Trades / day22.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 724 Trades
no open positions (104 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$12 +222%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $4 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $4 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $4 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $4 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $4 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.05 · official $5.05 (match) · 3500 history records